Projections before the Paris Agreement painted a concerning picture, with transport CO2 emissions potentially reaching a staggering 7 Gt by 2050, primarily driven by low- and middle-income countries. While the Asian Transport Outlook's reference scenario suggests a less severe outcome, the current emissions trajectory indicates a high degree of incompatibility with scenarios that successfully achieve the Paris Agreement's climate goals.

This challenge is further compounded by the anticipated surge in transport demand, particularly in the freight sector. Current trends and policies point towards substantial transport activity growth, potentially outpacing population and infrastructure growth. Projections from the International Transport Forum and Asian Transport Outlook suggest that passenger and freight transport demand could double or even quadruple between 2020 and 2050. This alarming growth trajectory implies that Asia alone could be responsible for roughly half of the global increase in transport demand.

Transport CO2 Emissions in Asia

Source: ATO Estimates

The current trajectory of transport emissions in Asia poses a significant hurdle to achieving the essential decarbonization goals. Urgent and ambitious action is required to overcome this challenge. A crucial step in this direction is establishing a robust monitoring system focused on key performance indicators (KPIs). This system should track various aspects influencing emissions, such as changes in transport activity, modal share, fuel efficiency improvements, electric vehicle adoption rates, and the impact of policies and investments to decarbonize the transport sector. However, it's essential to acknowledge that data availability limitations, particularly at the individual country level, can pose challenges in identifying and tracking all relevant KPIs.

In the subsequent section, we utilize the available data to spotlight ten key emerging trends that are significantly influencing transport emissions in Asia. By continuously evaluating these trends and supplementing them with more profound insights garnered through improved data collection and analysis, we can equip policymakers with the tools to make informed, data-driven decisions and course corrections. This proactive approach will be essential in ensuring that strategies aimed at curbing emissions growth remain both effective and adaptable in the face of an ever-evolving landscape.

Find out more about the associated report here:
Transport Decarbonisation in Asia: A Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty? A Primer for COP-29
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