Viet Nam Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

VIET NAM

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

Supported by:

Background

Vietnam, a low to lower-middle-income country in Southeast Asia, is at a pivotal point in its development. With a population of 101 million and a GDP (PPP) of $1.7 trillion in 2024, the country continues to grow economically. Yet, this growth is not aligned with environmental sustainability, especially in transport. In 2024, the transport sector emitted 52.2 million tonnes of GHGs, about 9% of the country's total emissions. Although the growth rate of transport emissions has slowed from 7.9% before the Paris Agreement to 5.0% after 2015, the sector's carbon footprint remains large, mainly because of road transport, which makes up 84% of transport emissions and 8% of the total emissions.

The structural composition of Viet Nam's transport energy demand reveals a persistent reliance on fossil fuels. In 2023, the sector consumed 641,395 terajoules of energy, 100% of which was derived from oil products, with biofuels and electricity maintaining less than 1% share. Despite this, there are positive indicators of relative decoupling; transport CO2 emission intensity per unit of GDP fell to 31.5 gCO2e per USD in 2024, down from 53.4 in 2000. This trend is mirrored in energy intensity, which decreased from 0.73 MJ per USD in 2000 to 0.43 MJ in 2023. While these improvements are notable, Viet Nam's transport energy intensity still exceeds that of low and lower-middle-income peers (0.24 MJ/USD), suggesting significant room for efficiency gains and modal shifts.

Viet Nam faces acute physical risks from climate change that threaten the integrity of its transport infrastructure. Between 2000 and 2024, the country experienced 186 natural disasters—primarily storms and floods—costing at least $27.6 billion and affecting over 45 million people. The transport network is particularly vulnerable, with 37% of the population living in low-elevated coastal zones at risk of sea-level rise. Furthermore, under a 4.5-degree warming scenario, over 28% of road and rail assets would be exposed to extreme precipitation. Currently, the country faces estimated annual losses of $48.6 million in transport infrastructure, with roads bearing 68% of the damage. Ranking 131st in National Road Vulnerability, the need for mainstreaming climate adaptation into infrastructure planning is paramount, yet only 29% of current policy measures include an adaptation component.

The motorization landscape in Viet Nam is unique, characterized by a high density of 752 vehicles per thousand population, significantly higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 317. This fleet is overwhelmingly dominated by two-wheelers (95%), while buses and light development vehicles (LDVs) represent a fraction of the total. Transitioning this fleet toward electrification is in its nascent stages; EV imports reached $125 million between 2017 and 2024, though they still account for only 1% of total road vehicle imports. While Viet Nam scores a high 83 on the UNEP E-mobility Readiness Index, structural challenges remain, including the transition of fuel tax revenues—currently 6% of government revenue—which faces a decline as electrification accelerates.

Urban mobility remains a significant challenge for decarbonization and social equity. As of 2024, Viet Nam possesses only 62 kilometers of rapid transit (33km metro, 29km BRT), equating to just 1.5 kilometers per million urban residents. Access to public transport is remarkably low; in 44% of urban centers, 80% of residents lack convenient access to transit services. To address these gaps, official development assistance (ODA) for transport has scaled significantly, reaching $11.7 billion between 2011 and 2023, with a notable shift toward rail (increasing from 6% to 19% share). Public-private partnerships (PPP) have also grown to $2.9 billion, though investment remains heavily skewed toward road infrastructure (73%).

Viet Nam's climate policy framework is maturing, evidenced by the 2022 NDC Update and various National Strategies. While the NDC lacks a transport-specific GHG target or a formal net-zero goal, Decision 876/QD-TTg and Decision 896/QD-TTg establish clear ambitions for green energy transformation and carbon neutrality by 2050. The current policy portfolio emphasizes public transport improvement, rail expansion, and technology transfer. However, there is a recognized need to align these high-level mandates with actionable sectoral measures, as NDCs and Long-Term Strategies currently contribute only 10% to the country's top priority transport measures. Strengthening the link between international financial support and the implementation of market-based mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement will be essential for Viet Nam to reach its conditional emission reduction targets of up to 43.5% by 2030.

Viet Nam's policy increasingly highlights the "Avoid" pillar by improving transport demand through integrated spatial planning and digital innovation. The Road Network Planning for 2021-2030, with a vision extending to 2050, emphasizes the importance of using energy and fuel efficiently in urban traffic to lower pollution levels. A key aspect of this approach is systematic urban development management, where the Railway Network Planning for 2021-2030 and its long-term vision include the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model. This model designates land around stations for high-density, functional areas to minimize motorized travel. Additionally, the National Strategy for road traffic order and safety for 2021-2030 and future outlook prioritize deploying artificial intelligence and big data to optimize traffic flow and lessen the severe congestion seen in major urban centers.

A strategic cornerstone of Vietnam's climate agenda is a massive modal shift from road-based transport to higher-capacity, lower-carbon alternatives. Decision 876/QD-TTg in 2022, which approves the Action Program on green energy transformation, explicitly mandates the promotion of freight transport modes from road to railway, waterway, and coastal transport. To facilitate this, the Railway Network Planning for 2021-2030, vision to 2050 outlines the development of a 1,545 km North-South high-speed railway and the expansion of urban railway networks in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. For passenger transport, the Approving the Action Program for Transition to Green Energy and Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions from Transportation sets aggressive targets for public transport coverage, aiming for 45%–50% in Hanoi by 2030 while developing non-motorized infrastructure to provide seamless connectivity between public modes.

The "Improve" pillar emphasizes a comprehensive technological upgrade of the vehicle fleet and energy infrastructure. According to Decision 876/QD-TTg in 2022, Vietnam plans to gradually phase out fossil-fuel vehicles, aiming for all new buses and taxis to operate on electricity or renewable energy sources by 2030. This initiative also covers aviation and maritime sectors, where the Action Program for Transition to Green Energy and the reduction of CO2 and methane emissions from transportation sets targets of at least 10% sustainable aviation fuel by 2035 and full green energy use for domestic ships by 2050. To facilitate this transition, standards like TCVN 9054:2011 and Circular 48/2022/TT-BGTVT establish technical regulations for electric vehicle performance and energy labeling, ensuring technological progress is backed by strong quality and safety measures.