Uzbekistan Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

UZBEKISTAN

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

Uzbekistan, classified as a low and lower-middle-income economy in Central and West Asia, has a population of 36.4 million and a GDP (PPP) of $431.9 billion in 2024. Although its GDP per capita is relatively modest at $11,879, the country faces notable decarbonization challenges. In 2024, the transportation sector emitted 18.7 million tonnes of greenhouse gases (GHG), making up about 8% of the total economy-wide emissions. Before the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals, transport emissions declined at an annual rate of -3.3%. However, post-2015, this trend shifted dramatically, with emissions increasing at 12.9% annually. This sharp rise highlights the urgent need for structural measures to reduce the carbon footprint of transport activities output.

The emissions profile of Uzbekistan's transport sector is overwhelmingly dominated by road transport, which represents 98% of sectoral GHG emissions and 8% of the national total. In contrast, rail, domestic navigation, and domestic aviation contribute marginally, at approximately 2%, 0%, and 0%, respectively. Carbon intensity per unit of GDP stood at 43.2 gCO2e per USD in 2024—a notable increase from 30.0 in 2015, though significantly lower than the 158.6 recorded in 2000. Notably, Uzbekistan's transport carbon intensity exceeds regional benchmarks, including the Asia-Pacific average (29.0), the Central and West Asia subregion (35.6), and other low and lower-middle-income peers (23.8).

Energy consumption patterns further highlight the sector's reliance on road transport, which accounts for 98% of energy use. While total transport energy consumption grew by 11% annually since 2010, energy intensity relative to GDP has improved, falling to 0.71 MJ per USD in 2023. A significant shift in the energy mix is evident: oil products' share of energy consumption reduced from 97% in 2010 to 43% by 2023, largely displaced by other fuels. However, the uptake of sustainable alternatives remains in its infancy, with biofuels and electricity accounting for only about 1% of total sectoral energy consumption. A bright spot is the rail sector, where electricity consumption increased from 20% in 2010 to 38% in 2023.

The fiscal landscape for transport in Uzbekistan is characterized by substantial fossil fuel subsidies, which rose from $1.9 billion (2010–2015) to $3.1 billion (2016–2023). These subsidies exacerbate negative externalities; external costs associated with petroleum subsidies are primarily driven by road crashes (73%), followed by congestion (22%) and road infrastructure damage (5%). Furthermore, the government faces a looming fiscal challenge as fuel tax revenues, which currently comprise 2% of total state revenue, are projected to face a structural decline as vehicle electrification progresses.

Uzbekistan's transport infrastructure is highly susceptible to climate-induced hazards. Since 2000, the country has recorded six major natural disasters—primarily flooding (50%), earthquakes (17%), and landslides (17%)—affecting 672,000 people and resulting in nearly 30 fatalities. The economic toll is significant, with potential average annual losses to transport infrastructure estimated at $8.4 million (0.002% of GDP). Roads bear 70% of these losses, followed by rail (27%) and airports (4%). Under a 4.5-degree temperature increase scenario, over 19% of the nation's road and rail assets would be exposed to extreme precipitation. Despite these risks, Uzbekistan ranks 148th globally in National Road Vulnerability, and only 16% of domestic policy measures currently incorporate climate adaptation or resilience components.

Motorization rates have increased to 209 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, though they remain below the Asia-Pacific average of 317. The vehicle fleet is composed largely of light-duty vehicles (58%), followed by two-wheelers (22%) and trucks (14%). Uzbekistan has made rapid strides in the electric vehicle (EV) market; EV imports reached $2.0 billion between 2017 and 2024, representing 28% of total road vehicle imports by 2024. The country also began domestic bus production, manufacturing 827 units in 2024, with nearly 20% of bus trade being electric. Consequently, Uzbekistan scores a high 79 out of 100 on UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index, though its lowest marks are in technology, market, and policy frameworks.

Urban mobility remains a critical gap. As of 2024, rapid transit infrastructure is limited to 50 kilometers of metro, and 87% of cities suffer from poor public transport access, with 80% of residents lacking convenient proximity to transit services. Only 4% of urban agglomerations meet the benchmark of having half the population within 500 meters of a public transport stop.

Development finance has shifted significantly; Official Development Assistance (ODA) for transport increased from $169.5 million (2002–2010) to $568.2 million (2011–2023), with a marked shift in focus from rail (82% of ODA) to road (61% of ODA). Conversely, public-private partnership (PPP) investments have stagnated, with no new recorded amounts since 2010. Addressing these financing gaps and aligning infrastructure expansion with the "Green Economy" transition strategy remains paramount for Uzbekistan to meet its ambitious 2030 climate commitments.

Uzbekistan's climate strategy is anchored in its 2025 Third National Determined Contribution (NDC), which aims to reduce carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. While the NDC includes mandates for EVs and alternative fuels, it lacks a specific net-zero target or a transport-specific GHG emissions goal. The policy framework includes several transport-relevant documents, yet only five are climate-specific.

Avoid: Uzbekistan is increasingly prioritizing the "Avoid" pillar by integrating transport planning with urban development to minimize unnecessary travel demand. The Draft Strategy for the Development of the Transport System of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2035 emphasizes the introduction of zoning mechanisms—such as car-free zones—and the synchronization of residential and industrial projects with the existing capacity of the transport system. This systemic approach is complemented by the Concept of Road Safety in the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2018–2022, which advocates for modern warning systems and intelligent control to optimize traffic flows and reduce congestion-induced emissions. Furthermore, the government is leveraging digitalization, as seen in the Development Strategy of New Uzbekistan for 2022–2026, to create "green corridors" and electronic document management systems that streamline transit opportunities and reduce the carbon footprint of logistics operations.

The core aspect of the national strategy, "Shift," emphasizes moving towards more energy-efficient transportation options, especially rail and public transit. The Third National Communication of Uzbekistan under the UNFCCC highlights a key "modal shift" focus, prioritizing the development of urban public transport, implementing paid parking, and expanding bicycle facilities. To make rail transport more appealing, the 2022–2026 Development Strategy of New Uzbekistan plans to achieve 60% railway electrification by acquiring modern electric locomotives and expanding high-speed rail connections between key cities like Tashkent, Samarkand, and Bukhara. This effort is supported by the 2023 Voluntary National Review - UZB, which aims to convert 80% of public transport—around 6,500 vehicles— to gas and electric power, improving urban mobility and decreasing local pollution.

The "Improve" pillar emphasizes modernizing the vehicle fleet through technological upgrades and adopting cleaner energy sources. According to Uzbekistan's First Biennial Update Report, the government aims to raise the share of alternative fuels to 18.7% by 2035 and to have 20% of all vehicles be hybrid, electric, or run on alternative fuels. The country's Third NDC also commits to developing a nationwide charging infrastructure and linking it with renewable energy sources, targeting a renewable capacity of 25,000 MW. To support sustainability, the Draft Strategy for Uzbekistan's Transport System Development until 2035 recommends phased standards adoption (Euro-4 and Euro-5) and a compensation plan for retiring high-emission commercial vehicles.