Türkiye Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

TÜRKİYE

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

By 2024, Türkiye is classified as a upper-middle-income economy, with a population of 87.5 million and a GDP (PPP) of $3.8 trillion. Its transport sector is vital to the economy but also a major environmental contributor. In 2024, this sector emitted 99.9 million tonnes of greenhouse gases (GHG), about 17% of the total emissions across the economy. The growth rate of transport emissions has slowed from 5.0% before the Paris Agreement and SDGs to 3.6% since 2015. Road transport remains the primary source, responsible for 95% of sector emissions and 16% of national emissions. Meanwhile, domestic aviation, navigation, and rail account for smaller proportions—4%, 1%, and nearly 0%, respectively.

Türkiye has demonstrated notable progress in decoupling transport activity from carbon intensity. The sector's CO₂ intensity per unit of GDP fell to 26.6 gCO₂e per USD in 2024, a significant improvement from 35.9 in 2015 and 57.7 in 2000. This performance places Türkiye ahead of the Asia-Pacific (29.0) and Upper-middle-income (29.5) averages. However, energy consumption trends suggest rising demand; since 2010, transport energy use has grown by 6% annually, reaching 1,374,779 terajoules in 2023. Despite improvements in energy intensity—decreasing from 0.82 MJ/USD in 2000 to 0.38 MJ/USD in 2023—the energy mix remains overwhelmingly reliant on oil products (99%). While biofuels and electricity accounted for <1% of total transport energy as of 2023, a bright spot is the rail sector, where electrification increased from 18% in 2010 to 57% by 2023. Türkiye's grid emission factor of 470 gCO₂ per kWh in 2024 remains slightly better than the regional average, though annual improvements in grid decarbonization (0.8%) lag behind the Asia-Pacific rate (1.4%).

Türkiye faces escalating systemic risks from natural disasters, having experienced 89 major events since 2000—predominantly earthquakes (36%) and flooding (35%). These events have affected 17.3 million people and cost at least $40.8 billion. The transport network is particularly susceptible; the country ranks 14th globally in the National Road Vulnerability ranking. Potential average annual losses to transport infrastructure are estimated at $163 million, with roads bearing 72% of this burden. Under a 4.5-degree warming scenario, over 8% of road and rail assets will be exposed to extreme precipitation. Despite these threats, only 30% of transport policy measures currently integrate climate adaptation or resilience components, highlighting a critical gap between infrastructure exposure and strategic planning.

Motorization in Türkiye has risen to 314 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, nearing the Asia-Pacific average. The vehicle fleet is diverse, with light-duty vehicles (LDVs) accounting for 51% and trucks 20% of road network users. The transition to electric mobility is in its nascent stages; while EV imports reached $7.5 billion between 2017 and 2024 (now representing 14% of total road vehicle imports). Notably, fuel tax revenues still comprise 5% of government revenue, signaling a looming fiscal challenge as electrification progresses and traditional revenue streams decline.

On the industrial side, Türkiye's bus manufacturing capacity surged to 14,856 units in 2024, though only 3.6% of recent bus trade involves electric variants. Urban mobility remains a challenge; while rapid transit infrastructure (Metro, LRT, BRT) grew to 573 km by 2024, 49% of cities still see 80% of residents without convenient access to public transport.

Investment in Türkiye's transport sector has shifted significantly towards private involvement. Public-private partnership (PPP) investments soared from $7.7 billion during 2000–2010 to $63.0 billion from 2011–2023, mainly directed to airports (63%) and roads (32%). Conversely, Official Development Assistance (ODA) mainly funds rail, which received 83% of the $5.2 billion allocated from 2011 to 2023. Policy-wise, Türkiye has built a strong framework, including documents like the 2025 NDC 3.0 and the 2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy. The country targets a 41% cut in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to BAU, with emissions peaking in 2038 and net-zero expected by 2053. Although no transport-specific GHG goals are in the NDC, focus remains on modal shifts, ITS, and EVs infrastructure.

The "Avoid" pillar of Türkiye's strategy focuses on minimizing unnecessary motorized travel through sophisticated spatial planning and digital integration. According to the National Climate Change Action Plan, the government intends to implement urban planning approaches that transform pedestrian and bicycle trips into primary alternatives while promoting the "Slow City" (Slowcity) concept to reduce the intensity of urban movement. This is complemented by the Integrated Urban Development Strategy and Action Plan (2010-2023), which mandates the harmonization of urban transportation plans with zoning and environmental plans to prevent urban sprawl. Furthermore, the Mobility Vehicles and Technologies Roadmap highlights the integration of remote and flexible working models into the social security system as a structural lever to mitigate peak-hour demand and reduce the overall carbon footprint of daily commuting.

To achieve a "Shift" in modal distribution, Türkiye is prioritizing a massive expansion of its railway and maritime networks to divert cargo and passenger traffic away from carbon-intensive road transport. The Twelfth Development Plan (2024–2028) and the Transport and Logistics Master Plan – 2053 set ambitious targets to increase the share of railways in freight transport from approximately 5% to over 20% by 2035, supported by the construction of over 8,500 km of new lines, including high-speed and very high-speed rail corridors. Urban mobility is being reimagined in the 2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy through the development of "sustainable transportation districts" and the integration of micromobility, such as e-scooters and bicycles, with terrestrial and maritime public transport. Incentives for this shift are further reinforced by the Combined Transport Regulation, which offers discounts on authorization certificates and vehicle cards for businesses demonstrating green logistics performance.

The "Improve" dimension features a detailed electrification strategy and the adoption of low-carbon fuels across all transportation modes. The Mobility Vehicles and Technologies Roadmap aims for a 35% electric vehicle market share by 2030, supported by a 75% domestic content ratio and a national fast-charging network, as outlined in the First NDC (Updated). For sectors that are more challenging to decarbonize, the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Instructions (SHT-SAF) and the 2053 Long-Term Climate Strategy encourage synthetic fuel use and set a 5% SAF blending mandate to meet International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition commitments. The Twelfth Development Plan (2024–2028) also prioritizes modernizing maritime fleets and deploying hydrogen fuel cell technologies, ensuring existing vehicles are revitalized through "forgiving roads" and "self-expressing" infrastructure that improves safety and efficiency.