Thailand Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

THAILAND

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

Thailand, an upper-middle-income country in Southeast Asia, had a 2024 GDP (PPP) of $1.8 trillion and a population of 71.7 million. The transport sector continues to be vital to the economy but also poses a major environmental issue, accounting for 84.7 million tonnes of GHG emissions—about 20% of all national emissions. Although the sector's CO2 emission intensity per GDP has improved significantly—dropping from 100.5 gCO2e per USD in 2000 to 47.8 gCO2e in 2024—it still exceeds the Asia-Pacific average of 29.0 gCO2e per USD. Additionally, the growth rate of emissions has increased since the Paris Agreement, rising from 2.1% annually before 2015 to 3.4% afterward since.

The emissions profile is predominantly dominated by road transport, which makes up 96% of total transport emissions and 19% of the country's overall GHG emissions. Conversely, domestic aviation (3%), domestic navigation (1%), and rail (almost zero) play a minor role. Energy use patterns reflect this road-focused trend; in 2023, the transport sector used 1,235,920 terajoules, with 96% of this consumption attributed to road transport. Despite worldwide moves toward electrification, oil products still meet 90% of Thailand's transportation energy demand. Although biofuels hold a 6% market share, electricity's role in the broader transport sector remains minimal, but the rail sector is making good progress, increasing its electrification from 7% in 2010 to 29% 2023.

Thailand faces substantial systemic risks from climate-induced natural disasters. Over the past two decades, 118 recorded disasters—primarily floods (60%) and storms (25%)—have cost the economy $66.1 billion. The transport sector is particularly exposed, with estimated annual infrastructure losses of $125.8 million, of which 78% is concentrated in road networks and 21% in rail. National road vulnerability is ranked 66th globally, reflecting the risk of trip failures should key segments be lost. Looking ahead, a 4.5-degree temperature increase scenario threatens to expose over 88% of road and rail assets to extreme precipitation, while sea-level rise poses a direct threat to the 10% of the population residing in low-elevation coastal zones.

Motorization rates in Thailand have reached 600 vehicles per thousand population, nearly double the Asia-Pacific average. The vehicle fleet is dominated by two-wheelers (57%) and light-duty vehicles (LDVs) (40%). However, there is a visible transition toward electric mobility. By 2024, EV imports accounted for 50% of total road vehicle imports, totaling $6.6 billion between 2017 and 2024. Despite this import surge, domestic bus manufacturing has reduced—falling from 4,590 units in 2015 to zero in 2024. Nevertheless, Thailand ranks high on UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index (82/100), bolstered by strong scores in policy, energy readiness, and financial instruments.

Urban mobility remains a bottleneck for sustainable development. While rapid transit infrastructure expanded from 2.1 km per million urban residents in 2015 to 3.8 km in 2024 (totaling 143 km across BRT, LRT, and metro), access remains inequitable. In 63% of Thailand's 32 urban agglomerations, 80% of residents lack convenient access to public transport. This "access gap" underscores the continued reliance on private motorized transport, despite significant imports of bicycles ($627.3 million since 2015) as a potential micro-mobility alternative.

The transport sector's financial landscape is experiencing a fundamental change. Fossil fuel subsidies for petroleum continue to generate external costs—mainly through road accidents (69%) and traffic congestion (29%)—while fuel tax income, making up 4% of total government revenue, is expected to decline long-term due to the shift to electric vehicles. Investment trends reveal a strategic shift: Official Development Assistance (ODA) for transport increased to $3.2 billion from 2011 to 2023, with the rail sector's share rising from 24% to 97%. Likewise, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) grew to $3.4 billion, with 88% allocated to rail projects, highlighting a clear policy focus on mass transit rather than road expansion.

Thailand's climate goals are detailed in several policy documents, including the 2025 Second NDC (NDC 3.0). The country plans to cut overall GHG emissions by 30% below business-as-usual levels by 2030, with a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Although the NDC does not set transportation-specific GHG reduction targets, the Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LTS) aims for a 41.0 MtCO2eq mitigation goal for the sector. Current policies focus on expanding rail, developing EV charging stations, and promoting biofuels. Nevertheless, there is a notable gap in adaptation efforts: only 15% of policy measures focus on climate resilience, despite substantial physical risks to the country's transport system assets.

Avoid: The "Avoid" pillar aims to separate mobility from carbon-heavy travel by implementing systemic spatial planning and digital innovation. The Climate Change Master Plan 2015-2050 mainly guides efforts to decrease travel demand through measures like distance-based insurance premiums and service fees, while promoting teleworking and e-commerce with ICT tools. This initiative is supported by the Thailand Road Safety Master Plan 2022-2027, which recommends managing parking spaces and pricing in urban areas to discourage personal vehicle use. Additionally, the Strategies for the Development of Thailand's Transport System for 2018-2036 highlights Transit Oriented Development (TOD) to optimize land use around mass transit hubs, reducing the need for long-distance motorized travel commutes.

The 'Shift' initiative mainly focuses on moving away from road-based transport toward more efficient rail and water networks. The Updated Nationally Determined Contribution - THA, along with the Environmentally Sustainable Transport System Plan, explicitly encourages shifting both passenger and freight traffic from roads to rail. Under the Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (M-MAP), the government is fast-tracking the expansion of urban rail lines, including the Blue, Green, and Purple lines, aiming to complete over 100 metro stations by 2029. For regional logistics, the Action Plan on Thailand Logistics Development 2023-2027 emphasizes building double-track railways to strengthen the nation's transport backbone and significantly boost freight transported by rail. Furthermore, the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Transport (2017-2021) promotes ferry development in the Gulf of Thailand to foster water-based transit as a sustainable, low-carbon option.

The "Improve" strategy primarily emphasizes a rapid shift towards zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and improving fuel efficiency. Thailand's Thirteenth National Economic and Social Development Plan (2023-2027) envisions the country becoming a global hub for electric vehicle manufacturing, with a target of 440,000 units for domestic use by 2030. This move is further supported by the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Reduction Action Plan for the Transport Sector, which includes plans to procure electric buses and modernize vehicle fleets. Fiscal measures are key in this effort; the INDC mentions implementing a CO2-based vehicle tax to promote low-carbon technologies. For aviation, Thailand's Action Plan to Reduce Aviation Emissions focuses on operational improvements such as Continuous Descent Operations and exploring Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) to lessen the environmental impact of its expanding aerospace industry.