Tajikistan Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

TAJIKISTAN

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

Tajikistan, a low- to lower-middle-income country in Central and West Asia, is at a pivotal moment in its transport sector's carbon emissions path. In 2024, this sector emitted 2.3 million tonnes of greenhouse gases, about 10% of the country's total emissions. Although the growth rate of CO2 emissions has slowed from 25.8% annually before the Paris Agreement to 6.0% since 2015, the make-up of these emissions remains a concern. Road transport is responsible for all transport-related emissions, with negligible contributions from rail, domestic navigation, and aviation. The emission intensity per GDP in 2024 was 40.0 gCO2e per USD, a sharp rise from 6.7 gCO2e in 2000, and surpassing the Asia-Pacific average of 29.0 and the Central and West Asia average of 35.6. This indicates that, despite improvements in efficiency since 2015, the sector's carbon footprint is growing faster than economic output.

Tajikistan's transport sector relies entirely on fossil fuels, with oil products making up 100% of its energy use in 2023. The sector's total energy consumption reached 34,212 terajoules in 2023, increasing by 8% annually since 2010. Its energy intensity per GDP (0.66 MJ/USD) surpasses the Asia-Pacific average (0.37) and the low/lower-middle-income economy average (0.24). Besides operational energy, the sector produces significant "embodied" emissions—about 4.3 million tonnes of materials are used annually for infrastructure development and upkeep, resulting in roughly 188,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions. Although the rail sector is 100% electrified internally, the overall transport energy mix remains limited, with no significant use of biofuels or expanded electricity integration in general transport.

Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to climate-related disruptions, ranking 203rd out of 208 countries in the National Road Vulnerability index. From 2000 to 2024, the country experienced 57 natural disasters, mainly floods (49%) and landslides (18%), affecting 6.4 million people and resulting in $1.8 billion in damages. The transport sector faces an average annual infrastructure loss of $14.5 million, with 91% of this damage concentrated on roads. Under a scenario of a 4.5-degree temperature rise, more than 23% of the country's road and rail infrastructure would be exposed to extreme rainfall. Although this risk is high, only 41% of current policies include climate adaptation or resilience measures, revealing a significant gap between vulnerability and institutional readiness.

Motorization rates have increased to 202 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, though they remain below the Asia-Pacific average of 317. The vehicle fleet is dominated by light duty vehicles (58%) and two-wheelers (22%). Urban mobility remains a significant challenge; in 75% of the eight major urban agglomerations, 80% of residents lack convenient access to public transport. Efforts to modernize the fleet are evident in the $106.6 million spent on bus imports between 2015 and 2024, yet <1% of this trade involved electric vehicles. Tajikistan's E-mobility Readiness Index score of 59 reflects systemic weaknesses, particularly in technology/market (7) and policy (15), despite a relatively clean power grid with an emission factor of 98 gCO2 per kWh—significantly lower than the regional average of 559 gCO2 per kWh.

The institutional framework for transport in Tajikistan consists of 16 relevant policy documents, of which only three are climate-specific. A critical strategic void exists: the country's 2021 Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) lacks economy-wide GHG targets, net-zero commitments, or transport-specific emission reduction goals. Furthermore, Tajikistan currently lacks a Long-Term Strategy (LTS). While Official Development Assistance (ODA) for transport surged from $90.7 million (2002-2010) to $885.5 million (2011-2023), 95% of this funding is directed toward roads, reinforcing the carbon-intensive status quo. Fuel tax revenues currently comprise 8% of government revenue, posing a fiscal risk as the global transition toward electrification progresses. Current priority policies focus on infrastructure expansion and logistics, but the NDCs and LTSs only contribute 16% to the top ten priority measure types, indicating a misalignment between international climate commitments and domestic sectoral planning.

To effectively avoid unnecessary motorized travel and decrease transport demand through structural efficiencies, Tajikistan is increasingly merging transport planning with spatial development. The Updated Nationally Determined Contribution explicitly aims to integrate transport and urban planning, encouraging multi-purpose land use and pedestrian-friendly communities to cut travel distances. Additionally, the National Transport Development Program of Tajikistan up to 2025 plans to remove transit highways and freight-intensive roads from residential areas, optimizing logistical flows and minimizing urban congestion externalities. This approach is further supported by the Medium-term Development Program, which aims to create efficient transport and logistics networks by promoting interdepartmental information exchange to reduce systemic inefficiencies and transport costs.

The move toward more sustainable and low-carbon transportation emphasizes revitalizing rail and public transit systems. The Updated Nationally Determined Contribution highlights shifting freight and passenger traffic from road to rail as a key strategy for reducing emissions. This is supported by the National Transport Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2025, which calls for constructing new rail links like the North-South railway and electrifying existing lines. Urban areas are encouraged to adopt public transportation and non-motorized options, such as bicycles and scooters. This transition is further backed by the Government of Tajikistan's order from April 1, 2011 No. 165, which prioritizes procuring modern buses and trolleybuses for Dushanbe and regional centers, along with developing intermodal transport systems to enable seamless, low-emission mobility network.

To improve the technical efficiency and energy intensity of the existing fleet, Tajikistan has recommended instituting rigorous standards for vehicles and fuels. The Updated Nationally Determined Contribution - TJK promotes the introduction of incentives for fuel-efficient vehicles and the adoption of hybrid technology, while also advocating for the use of biofuels and the conversion of vehicles to cleaner energy sources such as liquefied gas. The National Transport Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2025 specifically targets the "transfer of some vehicles to environmentally friendly types of motor vehicle fuels, primarily natural gas." Beyond road transport, the National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2030 and the International Energy Charter both call for modernizing and renewing energy-intensive transport installations. These efforts are supported by the order of the government of the Republic of Tajikistan of April 1, 2011, No. 165, which details the retrofitting of the aircraft fleet with new-generation, fuel-efficient aircraft and the upgrade of air traffic management systems to optimize operational efficiency.