Myanmar Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

MYANMAR

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

Myanmar, a Southeast Asian economy classified as low and lower-middle-income, had a population of 54.5 million and a GDP (PPP) of $326.9 billion in 2024. It is at a crucial point in its sectoral development. The transport sector is a main contributor to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, producing 13.8 million tonnes of CO2e in 2024, about 12% of the total emissions across the economy. Emissions from transport grew slowly at 1.5% annually before the Paris Agreement; since 2015, however, this rate has surged to 13.3% per year. Likewise, energy consumption in the sector has shifted from a growth rate of 2% annually (2000–2010) to 10% since 2010, reaching 200,408 terajoules in 2023.

Myanmar's transport emissions are predominantly from the road sector, which makes up 97% of the total and 11% of the country's overall GHG emissions. Other modes, such as domestic navigation (1%), domestic aviation (2%), and rail (0%), contribute minimally. Although the carbon intensity of transport relative to GDP has declined from its 2000 peak of 83.2 gCO2e/USD, the 2024 level of 42.1 gCO2e/USD is still notably above the Asia-Pacific average of 29 and the Southeast Asian subregional average of 34.3. This highlights ongoing challenges in decoupling emissions from economic growth, compounded by heavy dependence on fossil fuels—96% of transport energy comes from oil products, with biofuels and electricity consumption at <1% as of now 2023.

Institutional and fiscal frameworks offer both opportunities and challenges for the transition. Fossil fuel subsidies for petroleum continue to generate significant external costs, mainly from road crashes (89%), congestion (11%), and infrastructure damage. Although fuel tax revenues make up 4% of the government's total income, this source is expected to decline as electrification progresses. On the supply side, Myanmar's grid emission factor of 570 gCO2/kWh has decreased by 4.1% since 2015, diverging from the regional trend of gradual decarbonization in Asia-Pacific. Despite these obstacles, the Electric Vehicle (EV) market shows early signs of growth, with EV imports totaling $277 million from 2017 to 2024—accounting for 31% of all road vehicle imports, though nearly all are Light Duty Vehicles (95%).

Climate vulnerability represents a systemic risk to Myanmar's transport infrastructure. Since 2000, the country has experienced 57 natural disasters—mainly floods (49%) and storms (19%)—causing economic damages of $9.0 billion. The transport sector alone could face average yearly losses of $55.6 million, with 72% of these costs tied to road infrastructure. Under a 4.5°C warming scenario, more than 57% of road and rail assets are expected to be exposed to extreme rainfall. Additionally, Myanmar ranks 77th globally on the National Road Vulnerability index, and 11% of the population lives in low-elevation coastal zones at risk from sea-level rise.

Addressing these challenges requires a shift from infrastructure expansion toward integrated, sustainable mobility. Urban access remains a significant hurdle; only 30% of Myanmar's 64 urban agglomerations provide at least half their population with convenient access to public transport. Investment patterns have begun to shift to meet these needs, with Official Development Assistance (ODA) for transport surging from $10.4 million (2002–2010) to 1.8 billion (2011–2023), accompanied by an increased focus on rail (55% of ODA). While the 2021 Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) set an unconditional reduction target of 244.52 million tCO2e, the absence of a net-zero target, transport-specific GHG goals, or a long-term strategy (LTS) suggests a need for more granular policy alignment to bridge the gap between high-level climate commitments and sectoral implementation.

Myanmar is increasingly focusing on integrated land-use and transport planning to reduce reliance on motorized travel. The Climate Change Strategy 2018-2030 highlights the importance of preventing new emissions through compact urban growth and low-carbon building technologies. This approach is reinforced by initiatives within Myanmar's National Spatial Development Framework and Urban Planning System, which encourage planned city expansions and infill development to control urban sprawl. Additionally, the Survey Program for the National Transport Development Plan in Myanmar emphasizes developing advanced transport modeling and strategic ICT/ITS master plans to enhance existing infrastructure and minimize unnecessary traffic. These planning efforts are key to promoting "transit-oriented development" (TOD), especially near major rail hubs like Yangon and Mandalay stations.

Shift: A key element of Myanmar's climate strategy is actively promoting a transition from private vehicles and road freight to more efficient rail and water transport. The Survey Program for the National Transport Development Plan in Myanmar presents an ambitious plan for rail upgrades, including high-speed rail lines for the Yangon–Nay Pyi Taw–Mandalay route and extensive MRT/LRT networks in cities. To reduce emissions from freight, Myanmar's National Communication advocates improving containerized freight through upgraded railway and waterway systems. At the same time, the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan aims to make public transportation more appealing and affordable. Additionally, the National Strategy for Rural Roads and Access focuses on improving rural connectivity via climate-resilient standards, targeting 80% of villages to be connected by all-season roads by 2030.

The "improve" strategy aims to boost vehicle efficiency and shift the energy mix toward cleaner fuels. The Automotive Policy sets a high bar by requiring new passenger and commercial vehicles to comply with Euro 4 emission standards and promoting the gradual removal of inefficient used car imports. Fiscal measures are a key catalyst for these changes; the Law Amending the 2022 Union Tax Law offers commercial tax exemptions for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and their batteries. Additionally, the Updated Nationally Determined Contributions - MMR emphasizes incentives such as registration fee exemptions for electric cars and motorcycles. Regarding fuel use, the Myanmar Energy Master Plan 2015 advocates for a biofuel policy with a 20% blending target by 2030 and supports expanding natural gas (CNG) usage in transportation to lower the sector's carbon emissions.