Maldives Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

MALDIVES

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

The Maldives, a South Asian upper-middle-income nation with a 2024 population of 528,000, is at a crucial turning point regarding its transport and climate path. With a GDP (PPP) of $14.0 billion and a per capita income of $26,543, its economic growth has traditionally been disconnected from environmental sustainability in transport. In 2024, transport emitted 921,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases (GHG), making up 44% of the country's total emissions. Although the growth rate of transport CO2 emissions has decreased from 7.1% before the Paris Agreement to 3.0% after 2015, the sector remains a major contributor to the country's carbon footprint. Road transport is the largest source, accounting for 86% of emissions and 38% of the national GHG total, with domestic navigation and aviation each also contributing 7%.

There is a clear trend toward decarbonizing the economy, with the transport sector's CO2 emissions per GDP decreasing from 105.9 gCO2e per USD in 2000 to 65.8 in 2024. Despite this progress, the Maldives remains considerably more carbon-intensive than its peers—averaging 29.0 gCO2e per USD in the Asia-Pacific region and even less at 20.9 in South Asia. Additionally, infrastructure lifecycle impacts contribute to this footprint, with about 125,000 tonnes of materials used annually for expansion and maintenance, leading to 4,000 tonnes of embodied CO2-equivalent emissions.

Energy consumption patterns indicate complete dependence on fossil fuels, with transport energy exclusively from oil products—a unchanged statistic since 2010. In 2023, the sector used 16,987 terajoules, with road transport and domestic navigation making up 54% and 39%, respectively. Energy intensity has varied, reaching 1.31 MJ per USD in 2023, up from 1.27 in 2015, significantly higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 0.37 MJ per USD. The high energy demand is intensified by the external costs of petroleum subsidies, mainly social costs caused by traffic congestion (66%) and road accidents (27%). Additionally, fuel tax revenues, accounting for about 1% of total government income, are expected to decline structurally as the shift toward electrification progresses momentum.

The Maldives is highly vulnerable geographically, with all of its population living in low-lying coastal areas at risk from sea-level rise. Since 2000, natural calamities, mainly flooding (50%) and storms (25%), have impacted 17,000 people and caused substantial economic damages. The transport sector experiences an average yearly infrastructure loss of $64.8 thousand, mainly affecting airports (59%), then ports (24%), and roads (17%). The country is ranked 114th worldwide for National Road Vulnerability, indicating a systemic connectivity risk. Despite these dangers, only 26% of existing transport policies include climate adaptation or resilience strategies, while 87% emphasize mitigation.

Motorization trends indicate an increase to 274 vehicles per 1,000 people by 2024, dominated by two-wheelers at 85%. A shift toward cleaner technology is beginning to emerge. From 2017 to 2024, EV imports totaled $25 million, representing 9% of all road vehicle imports by 2024. The import value of buses also grew, reaching $26.8 million during 2015–2024, with electric buses accounting for 5.8% of the trade since 2017. Nonetheless, the Maldives has a moderate score of 51 on the UNEP E-mobility Readiness Index, with low scores in policy (5) and technology/market (13), highlighting the need for stronger regulatory frameworks.

The financing landscape for transport has shifted dramatically toward international support. Official Development Assistance (ODA) for transport increased from $17.9 million (2002–2010) to $354.4 million (2011–2023), with a strategic pivot toward airport infrastructure, which now receives 90% of transport ODA. In contrast, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), which provided $478 million for airports in the first decade of the millennium, have seen no recorded investment in the most recent period. Access to public transport remains high in the nation's urban agglomeration, with 100% of the population enjoying a 50% or better access level, supported by $15.2 million in bicycle imports over the last decade.

The Maldives' policy framework is anchored by the Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) published in 2025, which targets a reduction of 1.52 million tonnes of CO2e economy-wide by 2035, conditional on international support. However, the NDC lacks a specific transport-sector GHG target and the country has yet to establish a net-zero or long-term strategy (LTS). Current climate efforts are distributed across 17 relevant documents, including the Low Carbon Strategy for the Transport Sector and the Strategic Action Plan 2019–2023. Priority policies focus on public transport improvements, technology transfer, and EV adoption. Nevertheless, the integration of these priorities within the NDCs and LTSs remains low at 18%, indicating a need for better alignment between high-level climate commitments and sectoral implementation plans.

The core of the Maldives' "Avoid" strategy involves separating economic activity from transport needs through detailed urban planning and digital innovation. The Low Carbon Strategy for Transport emphasizes the government's focus on decreasing transport demand to Malé from outer islands by aligning work hours and improving civic administration via information technology. This approach is reinforced by the Strategic Action Plan 19-23, which highlights developing online systems to support women working from home and relocating industrial workshops to designated areas to reduce logistical delays. Additionally, the National Strategy for Sustainable Development calls for reengineering production and logistics to promote lower transport requirements, leveraging land use planning and population consolidation to reduce long-distance travel.

To encourage a shift towards more sustainable transport options, the Maldives is heavily investing in integrated public transit networks connecting land and sea. The Strategic Action Plan 19-23 sets a comprehensive goal to create an integrated ferry system that replaces the traditional spoke-and-hub model with a more efficient network, targeting 60% of Greater Malé's population to use public transport regularly by 2023. This transition is supported by the Maldives' Third Nationally Determined Contribution, which advocates for expanding energy-efficient public transport across the country. Alongside maritime initiatives, the Low Carbon Strategy for the Transport Sector and the National Strategy for Sustainable Development stress the importance of urban transport plans that include dedicated bicycle lanes and roadside tree planting to enhance pedestrian environments accessible.

The "Improve" pillar of Maldives' policy emphasizes technological upgrades of the fleet and the adoption of cleaner energy sources. The country's Third Nationally Determined Contribution offers strong incentives for purchasing electric (EV) and hybrid vehicles, coupled with expanding renewable energy-based charging infrastructure and battery-swapping options. Regarding fuels, the National Action Plan on Air Pollutants targets bioethanol and biodiesel blending, while the National Strategy for Sustainable Development aimed to have biofuels make up 20% of transport fuel by 2020. In aviation, the Flight Plan 2020-2025 and the International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition commit to achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 through CORSIA, better operational practices, and promoting low-carbon aircraft innovations. These initiatives are supported by the Strategic Action Plan 19-23, which enforces strict vehicle emission standards and enhances roadworthiness checks to facilitate a shift toward a highly efficient, low-emission transportation system.