Kazakhstan Transport and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

KAZAKHSTAN

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

Kazakhstan, an upper-middle-income country in Central and West Asia, has a significant economic presence with a 2024 GDP (PPP) of $840.4 billion and a population of 20.6 million. The transport sector is a vital part of this economy but also poses notable environmental challenges, producing 31.3 million tonnes of GHG emissions — about 9% of total economy-wide emissions. Worryingly, emissions growth has accelerated: before the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions in the sector grew at 2.8% annually, but this rate increased to 8.9% after 2015. Road transport is the largest contributor, making up 82% of transport emissions and 8% of the national GHG total. Meanwhile, rail, domestic aviation, and domestic navigation account for 13%, 4%, and 0%, respectively.

Kazakhstan's transport sector heavily depends on fossil fuels, with oil making up 98% of its energy use in 2023. Although energy efficiency has improved over time—dropping from 0.85 MJ per USD in 2000 to 0.53 MJ per USD in 2023—it still exceeds the Asia-Pacific average of 0.37 MJ per USD. The sector's carbon intensity was 37.3 gCO2e per USD in 2024, higher than the 35.8 gCO2e per USD in 2015 and well above the Upper-Middle-Income average of 29.5 gCO2e per USD. A key obstacle to decarbonization is the high emission factor of the national grid, at 802 gCO2 per kWh—far above the regional average of 559 gCO2 per kWh—reducing the climate benefits of electrification. Additionally, fossil fuel subsidies, which grew to $17.4 billion from 2016 to 2023, impose external costs mainly from congestion (66%) and road crashes (32%).

Infrastructure development in Kazakhstan involves a considerable carbon "embodied" cost, with roughly 2.0 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions each year for maintaining and expanding the network. The motorization rate is 245 vehicles per 1,000 people, mainly consisting of Light Duty Vehicles (83%), with almost no two-wheelers (2%). Although Kazakhstan has increased its bus manufacturing capacity to 2,942 units in 2024, the shift to electric mobility remains in early stages, with electric vehicles making up just 4% of total road vehicle imports. Urban mobility faces substantial "shift" challenges: as of 2024, only 34 kilometers of rapid transit (Metro and LRT) exist. This infrastructure gap results in limited accessibility, with 72% of urban areas reporting that 8 out of 10 residents lack easy access to public transportation.

Kazakhstan's transport network is highly vulnerable to disruptions caused by climate change. Since 2000, the country has documented 21 natural disasters, with flooding accounting for 67% and earthquakes for 10%, representing major threats. It ranks 28th worldwide in the National Road Vulnerability index, highlighting a significant risk of systemic failure if critical segments are damaged. In a scenario where global temperatures rise by 4.5 degrees, over 58% of roads and rail infrastructure would face extreme precipitation risks. The projected average annual losses to transport infrastructure could reach $32.1 million, mainly impacting the rail sector (61%) and roads (35%).

Kazakhstan's strategic plan is guided by its NDC 3.0 and the 2060 carbon neutrality strategy. The NDC commits to a 15% reduction in economy-wide GHG emissions by 2030 (up to 25% with international support) and a 17% cut by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. However, it does not specify transport-specific GHG targets, and only 20% of policy measures include climate adaptation. Key policies emphasize vehicle efficiency, emission standards, the promotion of electric vehicles, and upgrades to fuel quality. Although 81% of transport measures focus on mitigation, integrating these policies into long-term strategies is essential, as current NDCs and LTS cover only 28% of the most urgent measure types.

The "Avoid" pillar in Kazakhstan's climate policy is increasingly defined by the Concept for the Transition to a Green Economy and the Strategy of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2060. Central to these strategies is optimizing the national logistics network to reduce the need for carbon-intensive journeys. Major initiatives focus on the digitalization of the "Middle Corridor" and on enhancing Kazakhstan's status as a transit hub between Asia and Europe. By integrating advanced logistics management systems and optimizing freight routing, the government aims to minimize empty backhauls and streamline cargo movements. Furthermore, urban planning initiatives under the State Program for the Development of Regions are beginning to incorporate compact city concepts and transit-oriented development to reduce average commuting distances in major metropolitan areas such as Almaty and Astana.

A central element of Kazakhstan's National Development Plan and the Fuel and Energy Sector Development Concept until 2030 is to significantly transfer freight and passenger traffic from roads to more efficient transit modes, chiefly rail. Kazakhstan's extensive rail network already handles a large share of national freight, but climate policies intend to further promote this shift through substantial infrastructure investments and upgrades. Strategy 2060 emphasizes electrifying existing rail lines to capitalize on the increasing share of renewable energy in the national grid. Additionally, urban public transport reforms focus on the "Shift" strategy by acquiring modern bus fleets and expanding the Almaty Metro, aiming to reduce high motorization levels and promote a modal shift from private light-duty vehicles, which currently dominate the roads.

The "Improve" strategy stands out as one of the most dynamic aspects of Kazakhstan's current policies, as outlined in the Environmental Code of 2021 and the Roadmap for Developing Electric Vehicle Infrastructure by 2029. The government aims to boost electric vehicle (EV) adoption significantly, with the SDG 7 Roadmap recommending a 15% target for passenger cars and 5% for electric buses by 2030. To support this goal, measures such as customs and tax exemptions for EV imports and the creation of a national charging network are being put into place. Additionally, Strategy 2060 encourages stricter vehicle efficiency standards and promotes the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a transitional fuel for heavy-duty transport. These efforts are complemented by grid modernization to reduce the entire "well-to-wheel" carbon footprint of the transport sector, aligning with broader decarbonization goals in the power industry.