Brunei Darussalam and Climate Profile 2026

Outline

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

TRANSPORT AND CLIMATE PROFILE

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Background

Brunei Darussalam stands out in Southeast Asia with its high-income level, extensive motorization, and a carbon footprint mainly from road transport. With a population of 463,000 and a per capita GDP (PPP) of $90,007 in 2024, its transport activity closely links to economic wealth. The 5.1 thousand-kilometer road network, with a density of 974 meters per square kilometer, supports a motorization rate of 648 vehicles per thousand people—almost twice the Asia-Pacific average of 317. This vehicle ownership level is evident in the fleet, where light-duty vehicles (LDVs) make up 91% of road users, while two-wheelers and buses each represent only 1%, reflecting a dominance of private motor vehicles.

The transport sector's environmental profile is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with all energy consumption coming from oil products in 2023. Total transport energy use was 18,270 terajoules, with the road sector accounting for 99% of this. As a result, road transport remains the main contributor to the sector's climate impact, emitting 1.3 million tonnes of CO2e in 2024—99% of transport-related emissions and 11% of the country's total GHG emissions. Although emissions increased by 1.8% annually since 2000, a decoupling trend has emerged since 2015, with transport CO2 emissions decreasing by 0.8% each year. Emissions intensity per GDP has improved substantially, dropping from 52.1 gCOe per USD in 2015 to 30.7 in 2024—a rate of improvement that surpasses regional averages in both Asia-Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Despite these efficiency gains, structural challenges remain, particularly regarding the fiscal landscape of energy. Fossil fuel subsidies for transport totaled approximately $1.2 billion between 2016 and 2023. These subsidies carry heavy externalities, with 83% of the associated social costs attributed to traffic congestion and 11% to road crashes. The transition to electric mobility is in its nascent stages; EV imports represented only 3% of total road vehicle imports by 2024, valued at $9 million. Brunei's E-mobility Readiness Index score of 59 out of 100 highlights significant gaps in financial instruments and technological market penetration, despite moderate scores in policy and energy readiness.

The aviation sector, though currently a minor contributor to the energy balance (1% in 2023), is poised for significant expansion. Following a sharp pandemic-induced contraction where flight departures fell from 14.1 thousand in 2019 to 1.2 thousand in 2021, passenger activity is projected to grow by 48% by 2035. The propensity to travel is expected to rise from 0.82 trips per year in 2024 to 2.55 by 2044. Domestic aviation contributed 16 thousand tonnes of GHG emissions in 2024, and notably, no airports in the country have yet achieved Level 3+ Carbon Neutrality under Airport Carbon Accreditation. From a social perspective, the aviation sector shows higher gender inclusivity, with women comprising 44% of its workforce compared to 29.4% in the broader transport and communications sector.

Climate change poses material risks to Brunei's transport infrastructure, with potential average annual losses estimated at $4.2 million (0.011% of GDP). Roads bear 94% of these projected losses. Under a high-emission 4.5 degree scenario, 100% of the country's road and rail assets are exposed to increasingly frequent and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, the nation ranks 183rd globally in National Road Vulnerability, and 2% of the population resides in low-elevation coastal zones vulnerable to sea-level rise. Beyond climate change, the transport sector imposes a significant public health toll; ambient PM 2.5 and ozone from tailpipes resulted in an estimated $291 million in annual health damages (1% of GDP), with road transport accounting for 16% of economy-wide PM 2.5 emissions.

Brunei Darussalam's strategic response is codified in several key policy documents, including the "Brunei Darussalam's Third Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0)" published in 2025. Brunei targets a 20% reduction in GHG emissions relative to Business-As-Usual (BAU) levels by 2030 and a 63% reduction in total energy consumption by 2035. In the land transport sector specifically, the government aims to reduce CO2 emissions from morning peak-hour vehicle use by 40% by 2035. However, the country currently lacks a formal Long-Term Strategy (LTS) or a net-zero target. While 83% of transport policy measures are relevant to mitigation, only 28% address climate adaptation. Accessibility remains a critical frontier for development; currently, 80% of residents in urban agglomerations lack convenient access to public transport, and 18% of the population must travel more than 30 minutes to reach city centers, highlighting the need for enhanced modal shift and integrated urban planning.

Avoid Measures - To mitigate the impact of high private vehicle dependency, the government is prioritizing integrated spatial development to reduce the necessity and length of motorized trips. The National Land Use Master Plan (NLUMP) 2006–2025 provides the spatial framework for coordinating national development needs with conservation, effectively guiding land use to prevent urban sprawl. Complementing this, the Review to Formulate a Roadmap and Draft National Masterplan for a Sustainable Land Transportation System for Brunei Darussalam mandates exploring alternative planning approaches before additional highway capacity is constructed, ensuring that the social and environmental impacts of road expansion are balanced with the needs of essential road users. Furthermore, the proposed Urban Smart Travel Zone in Bandar Seri Begawan aims to reallocate road space toward more sustainable modes, thereby optimizing the capital city's existing footprint.

Shift Measures - A central pillar of Brunei's strategy is the substantial shift from private automobiles to public and active transport. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) sets an ambitious target to increase the share of public transport journeys from 1% to 22% by 2035. Key to this expansion is the development of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system featuring four urban corridors totaling 48 km, supported by park-and-ride facilities and a centralized Brunei Transport Management and Control Centre. Infrastructure for active travel is also being integrated into development control guidelines, with plans for more cohesive walking and cycling networks in Bandar Seri Begawan and school-centric connections via the National School Bus System. These measures are reinforced by the Strategic Plan for the Ministry of Transport and Infocommunications (MTIC 2025), which aims to increase bus ridership by 10% through upgrades to public transport services.

Improve Measures - To enhance energy efficiency in the remaining motorized fleet, Brunei is adopting strict standards and fiscal reforms. The Brunei Darussalam National Climate Change Policy (BNCCP) aims to boost the share of electric vehicles (EVs) to 60% of annual sales by 2035. This goal is supported by the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which includes incentives such as excise duty reductions, revised vehicle license fees, and the deployment of charging infrastructure, including the country's first retail rapid charging station launched in 2022. Additionally, the Review to Formulate a Roadmap and Draft National Masterplan for a Sustainable Land Transportation System presents a Carbon Reduction Blueprint that encourages fuel technology transitions and the gradual tightening of emission standards to Euro V and higher. Fiscal strategies, such as reassessing retail fuel subsidies to account for the environmental costs of transport, are also under consideration to promote the adoption of low-carbon technologies.