Vanuatu, a Pacific island nation with a population of 328,000 and a GDP per capita of $3,602 in 2024, faces a complex air quality challenge where transport emissions play an increasingly significant role. While the country's annual average population-weighted PM 2.5 concentration has shown improvement—declining from 9.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 7.0 in 2023—this level still exceeds the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter. The human cost of ambient air pollution in Vanuatu is measurable: the World Bank estimates that 54 people died prematurely due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, with approximately 2 of these deaths attributable specifically to transport tailpipe emissions according to McDuffie et al. (2021). The economic burden is equally striking, with health damages from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure reaching $101 million in 2019—approximately 10 percent of the nation's GDP. This proportion mirrors the broader Asia-Pacific average of 10.6 percent, yet represents more than double Vanuatu's healthcare expenditure of 4.1 percent of GDP in 2022, underscoring the disproportionate impact of air pollution on the nation's resources.

The transport sector's contribution to Vanuatu's air pollution has evolved dramatically over recent decades, reflecting both economic growth and shifting modal patterns. Since 2010, while the country's GDP has grown at 4.3 percent annually, PM 2.5 emissions from transport have grown more modestly at 0.5 percent per year (down from 2.7 percent between 2000 and 2010), suggesting some decoupling of economic growth from transport emissions. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 64 percent of total PM 2.5 emissions in Vanuatu, with domestic navigation emerging as the dominant source at 73 percent of transport-related PM 2.5, a substantial increase from 53 percent in 2010. Road transport's share has declined correspondingly from 45 percent to 27 percent over the same period, though the composition of road emissions has shifted notably—non-exhaust emissions from resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear now constitute 33 percent of road sector emissions, up from 17 percent in 2010. Domestic aviation contributes minimally at 1 percent. The State of Global Air estimates indicate that transport and international shipping contributed approximately 0.8 percent and 2.7 percent to ambient PM 2.5 respectively in 2019, though these figures reflect a snapshot that has likely evolved given subsequent emission trends.

Beyond particulate matter, Vanuatu's transport sector generates a range of pollutants with distinct emission trajectories and modal distributions. Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from transport declined by 1.0 percent annually between 2010 and 2022, following earlier growth of 3.8 percent between 2000 and 2010. By 2022, transport accounted for 34 percent of total NOx emissions, with road transport comprising 62 percent of transport NOx (down from 70 percent in 2010) and domestic navigation increasing its share from 21 percent to 34 percent. Domestic aviation contributes 4 percent, while rail remains absent from Vanuatu's transport mix. Sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions present a different pattern: transport-related SOx grew by 2.5 percent annually after 2010, having previously declined by 0.7 percent between 2000 and 2010. Domestic navigation dominates transport SOx emissions almost entirely, accounting for 98 percent by 2022 (up from 94 percent in 2010), while transport overall represents just 9 percent of the nation's total SOx emissions. The maritime sector's overwhelming dominance in SOx emissions likely reflects fuel quality standards, with marine bunker fuels typically containing higher sulfur content than road fuels.

Additional pollutants further illustrate the transport sector's environmental footprint in Vanuatu. Methane (CH4) emissions from transport grew by 2.7 percent annually between 2010 and 2022, with road transport accounting for 91 percent of transport CH4 by 2022. Non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions increased by 1.9 percent annually over the same period, with road transport responsible for 68 percent of transport NMVOC by 2022. Black carbon (BC) emissions, which declined by 1.6 percent annually after 2010 following earlier growth of 3.9 percent between 2000 and 2010, show a modal split where domestic navigation now contributes 59 percent of transport BC (up from 33 percent in 2010), while road transport's share decreased from 65 percent to 41 percent. Domestic aviation consistently contributes approximately 1 percent across these pollutant categories. These emission trends occur against a backdrop where other sectors' emissions have grown considerably—PM 2.5 from non-transport sources increased 2.3 percent annually, NOx by 2.2 percent, and SOx by 3.1 percent since 2010—suggesting that while transport remains a major contributor, economy-wide emission management requires attention across multiple sectors.

The energy consumption patterns underlying these emissions reveal a transport sector almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, with limited progress toward cleaner alternatives. In 2023, road transport dominated energy consumption at 85 percent of the total, followed by domestic aviation at 7 percent and domestic navigation at 8 percent, with rail transport absent. Oil products accounted for 100 percent of transport energy consumption in 2023, unchanged from 2010 and 2015, while biofuels and electricity each represented 0 percent of the energy mix. Electric vehicle adoption remains nascent despite some recent activity: EV imports reached $744,000 between 2017 and 2024, representing less than 1 percent of total road vehicle imports by 2024. These imports comprise 93 percent light-duty vehicles, 7 percent two-wheelers, and negligible goods vehicles or buses. UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index assigns Vanuatu a score of 47 out of 100, with particularly low scores in technology and market (5) and financial instruments (8), alongside modest scores in policy (15) and energy infrastructure (19). Motorization rates have increased from 238 vehicles per thousand population in 2000 to 271 in 2024, slightly below the Asia-Pacific average of 317, suggesting continued growth in vehicle ownership that may exacerbate emissions absent intervention. The persistence of fossil fuel dependence and slow uptake of cleaner technologies indicates substantial barriers—likely including infrastructure constraints, vehicle costs, and policy frameworks—that will need addressing to meaningfully reduce transport sector emissions in Vanuatu's unique island context

EV in public transport

EV mandates/ procurement

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