Pakistan faces a severe air quality crisis that demands urgent attention. With a population of 251.3 million in 2024 and a GDP of $1.6 trillion, this lower-middle-income nation in Central and West Asia confronts pollution levels that far exceed international health standards. The annual average concentration of PM 2.5 increased from 57.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 58.4 in 2023—more than eleven times the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter and over twice the interim target of 25. This figure significantly surpasses the Central and West Asia regional average of 30.4 recorded in 2022.

The transport sector plays a notable role in Pakistan's air pollution landscape, though its contribution has evolved over recent years. According to the State of Global Air, transport and international shipping contributed approximately 9.3% and 0.7% to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, respectively. The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy reveals that about 62% of Pakistan's urban population lives beyond 500 meters from highways, exposing millions to concentrated vehicular emissions daily. This proximity to major roadways amplifies health risks for urban residents across the country.

The health consequences of air pollution in Pakistan are devastating. The World Bank estimates that 114,008 people died prematurely due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019. Of these deaths, McDuffie and colleagues attribute approximately 9,319 to transport tailpipe emissions specifically. Additionally, in 2023, at least 141 people died prematurely from occupational exposure to diesel engine exhausts. The economic burden is staggering—the World Bank calculated that health damages from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure cost Pakistan $94.3 billion in 2019, equivalent to roughly 9% of GDP. This figure is comparable to the Asia-Pacific average of 10.6% of GDP, yet Pakistan allocated only 2.9% of GDP to healthcare in 2022, highlighting a stark imbalance between health costs and investment.

Pakistan's economic growth has outpaced improvements in transport emissions. Since 2010, GDP has grown by 5.6% annually, while PM 2.5 emissions from transport declined modestly by 0.4% between 2010 and 2022, following a steeper 4.7% decline between 2000 and 2010. However, PM 2.5 emissions from other sectors surged by 10.0% per year since 2010, underscoring that transport is just one piece of a larger pollution puzzle. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 7% of total PM 2.5 emissions in Pakistan.

Within the transport sector itself, road vehicles dominate emissions. By 2022, road transport contributed 66% of transport PM 2.5 emissions, including non-exhaust sources, while rail accounted for 33%, and domestic navigation and aviation contributed negligible amounts. The share of road transport actually decreased from 71% in 2010 to 66% by 2022. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis estimates that in 2025, heavy-duty vehicles accounted for 22% of road sector PM 2.5 emissions, light-duty vehicles 21%, motorcycles 19%, and buses 39%. A concerning trend is the growing contribution of non-exhaust emissions—by 2022, PM 2.5 from resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear represented 35% of road sector emissions, up from 24% in 2010.

Nitrogen oxide emissions paint a somewhat different picture. NOx emissions from transport grew by 0.8% between 2000 and 2010, then declined by 1.5% between 2010 and 2022. Meanwhile, NOx emissions from other sectors increased by 1.8% annually since 2010. By 2022, transport was responsible for 33% of total NOx emissions, with road transport comprising 94% of that share, rail 5%, and negligible contributions from navigation and aviation. The road share declined slightly from 95% in 2010. For 2025, IIASA projects that buses will account for half of road sector NOx emissions, heavy-duty vehicles 28%, light-duty vehicles 20%, and motorcycles just 2%.

Sulfur oxide emissions from transport have declined more consistently—down 18.1% between 2000 and 2010 and another 2.7% between 2010 and 2022. Other sectors also reduced SOx emissions by 1.2% annually since 2010. By 2022, transport accounted for virtually none of Pakistan's total SOx emissions. Within the minimal transport contribution, road vehicles represented 50%, rail 36%, and domestic aviation 14%.

Other pollutants show varied trajectories. Methane emissions from transport grew 11.8% between 2000 and 2010, then declined 4.1% between 2010 and 2022, with road transport responsible for the entirety of these emissions by 2022. Non-methane volatile organic compounds declined 4.2% in the first period but increased 6.1% in the second, again almost entirely from road transport. Black carbon emissions fell 7.1% and 2.6% in the respective periods, with road transport contributing 97% by 2022, down from 98% in 2010.

The transport sector's energy profile remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels. In 2023, the road sector consumed approximately 98% of total transport energy, with rail, domestic navigation, and aviation accounting for about 1%, 0%, and 0%, respectively. Oil products dominated at 97% of transport energy consumption—a sharp increase from 79% in 2010 and 91% in 2015. Biofuels and electricity each constituted 0% of transport energy consumption by 2023. Even in the rail sector, electricity usage decreased to approximately 0% by 2023, down from 0% in 2010.

Pakistan's grid emission factor stands at 398 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour as of 2024, lower than both the Asia-Pacific average of 559 and the Central and West Asia average of 495. The country has achieved a modest 0.9% annual improvement since 2015, though this lags behind the Asia-Pacific improvement rate of 1.4% per year.

Fossil fuel subsidies have expanded dramatically. Between 2010 and 2015, transport received approximately $2.4 billion in fossil fuel subsidies. This figure jumped to $7.8 billion between 2016 and 2023. These subsidies impose additional external costs on Pakistani society, with 25% manifesting as increased local air pollution. Meanwhile, fuel tax revenues comprise roughly 1% of Pakistan's total government revenue and face structural decline as transport electrification advances.

Electric vehicle imports reached $289 million between 2017 and 2024, representing 7% of total road vehicle imports by 2024. The composition includes 78% light-duty vehicles, 1% two-wheelers, and 21% goods vehicles and buses. UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index assigns Pakistan a score of 76 out of 100, with subscores of 20 for technology and market, 15 for policy, 20 for energy, and 21 for financial instruments.

Motorization has increased significantly, reaching 156 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, up from 101 in 2000, though still below the Asia-Pacific average of 317 in 2024. This growing vehicle fleet intensifies pressure on urban air quality and infrastructure.

Public transport accessibility remains woefully inadequate. Pakistan had just 0.7 kilometers of rapid transit per million urban population in 2015, increasing marginally to 1.1 kilometers by 2024. Among the country's 55 urban agglomerations, only 2% achieved an access level of 50% or better, meaning that in just one city do half the residents live within 500 meters of public transport. In 69% of cities, eight out of ten residents lack convenient access to public transport, forcing reliance on private vehicles and contributing to congestion and emissions.

Pakistan stands at a crossroads. While transport emissions have declined modestly relative to economic growth, the sector remains a significant contributor to air pollution that claims tens of thousands of lives annually. The heavy dependence on fossil fuels, inadequate public transport infrastructure, and growing vehicle ownership present formidable challenges. Addressing these issues will require coordinated policy interventions, substantial investment in clean public transport, accelerated vehicle electrification, and a fundamental rethinking of fossil fuel subsidies that perpetuate the pollution crisis.

EV in freight

EV in public transport

EV mandates/ procurement

Vehicle air pollution emission standards

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