Nepal Transport Air Pollution Profile 2026
NEPAL
TRANSPORT AIR POLLUTION PROFILE
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Background
Nepal faces a critical air quality challenge, with transport emissions playing an increasingly significant role in the nation's pollution burden. The country's population of 29.7 million inhabitants experienced an annual average concentration of PM 2.5 that climbed from 42.2 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 53.2 micrograms per cubic meter in 2023. This level substantially exceeds both the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter and its interim target of 25 micrograms per cubic meter, positioning Nepal above the South Asia regional average of 40.1 micrograms per cubic meter recorded in 2022. While transport and international shipping contributed approximately 6.0% and 0.4% to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019 according to the State of Global Air estimates, the sector's environmental footprint has expanded considerably over the past decade.
Nepal's economy has demonstrated robust growth, with GDP expanding at an annual rate of 8.3% since 2010, reaching $170.1 billion in purchasing power parity terms by 2024. This economic expansion, however, has come alongside a concerning acceleration in transport-related pollution. PM 2.5 emissions from the transport sector grew modestly at 1.4% between 2000 and 2010, but this growth rate surged to 5.0% in the period between 2010 and 2022. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 10% of total PM 2.5 emissions in Nepal, a proportion that reflects the sector's growing contribution to the nation's air quality challenges. Other sectors have experienced even more dramatic growth, with PM 2.5 emissions increasing by 9.4% annually since 2010, underscoring the broader industrialization and development pressures facing this lower-middle-income economy.
The transport sector's pollution profile in Nepal reveals an overwhelming reliance on road-based mobility. In 2022, road transport was responsible for 100% of transport PM 2.5 emissions, a figure that has remained unchanged since 2010. Within the road sector, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis estimates that buses bear the heaviest burden, accounting for 41% of PM 2.5 emissions in 2025, followed by light duty vehicles at 30%, heavy duty vehicles at 23%, and motorcycles at 6%. Non-exhaust emissions have also emerged as a growing concern, with resuspended dust, brake wear, and tyre wear contributing 28% of road sector emissions by 2022, up from 17% in 2010. The nitrogen oxide emissions tell a similar story, with the transport sector responsible for 44% of total NOx emissions in Nepal by 2022, growing at rates of 7.2% between 2000 and 2010 and 6.1% between 2010 and 2022.
The human cost of transport-related air pollution in Nepal is substantial and measurable. The World Bank estimates that 17,948 people died prematurely in 2019 due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5, with McDuffie and colleagues attributing approximately 1,128 of these deaths specifically to transport tailpipe emissions. Occupational exposure to diesel engine exhausts claimed at least 25 lives prematurely in 2023, equivalent to fewer than one death per million population. The economic burden is equally staggering, with the World Bank estimating that health damages from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure cost Nepal 10.4 billion USD in 2019, representing approximately 10% of the nation's GDP. This expenditure mirrors the Asia-Pacific regional average of 10.6% of GDP and exceeds Nepal's healthcare spending, which stood at 6.7% of GDP in 2022.
Among the nation's nine urban agglomerations, 67% of cities suffer from inadequate public transport access, with eight out of ten residents lacking convenient connections to transit services. This deficiency forces greater reliance on private vehicles, perpetuating the cycle of road-dependent mobility. Motorization has increased from 186 vehicles per thousand population in 2000 to 228 in 2024, though this rate remains below the Asia-Pacific average of 317 vehicles per thousand population. The road sector consumed approximately 98% of total transport energy in 2023, with rail, domestic navigation, and domestic aviation accounting for minimal shares at 0%, 0%, and 2% respectively.
Nepal's transport sector remains almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, with oil products constituting 100% of energy consumption in 2023, unchanged from 2010 and 2015 levels. Biofuels and electricity each represent 0% of the sector's energy mix, indicating minimal progress toward cleaner fuel alternatives. The fossil fuel subsidies impose additional external costs on Nepali society, with 30% of these costs manifesting as heightened local air pollution. Despite these challenges, electric vehicle adoption has shown promising momentum, with EV imports reaching 610 million USD between 2017 and 2024. By 2024, electric vehicles represented 53% of total road vehicle imports, composed of 87% light duty vehicles, 11% goods vehicles and buses, and 3% two-wheelers. The United Nations Environment Programme's E-mobility Readiness Index assigns Nepal a score of 70 out of 100, with component scores of 14 for technology and market, 20 for policy, 22 for energy infrastructure, and 14 for financial instruments, suggesting moderate but uneven readiness for widespread electric mobility adoption.
Air Quality
Air Pollution from Transport
Health Burden
Resuspended Dust, Brake, and Tyre-wear
Vehicle Fuel Mix
Vehicle Fleet
Policy Landscape
Ban of ICE sales
| Assessment of Electric Mobility Targets for Nepal's 2020 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) | Not Found | Remove all petroleum-powered vehicles from four urban centres (Kathmandu Valley, Chitwan, Hetauda and Kavre) by 2028. (Bagmati Province Periodic Plan) | 2028 |
EV in public transport
| Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 | Not Found | Build and operate at least 50 km by 2030 and 100 km by 2035 of integrated electric bus, trolley and light rail transit system in Kathmandu Valley | 2030 |
| Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 | Not Found | Build and operate at least 50 km by 2030 and 100 km by 2035 of integrated electric bus, trolley and light rail transit system in Kathmandu Valley | 2035 |
EV mandates/ procurement
| Assessment of Electric Mobility Targets for Nepal's 2020 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) | Not Found | 7.3.1: Share of EV in public transport systems 2025: 35% (SDG Targets & indicators) | 2025 |
| Assessment of Electric Mobility Targets for Nepal's 2020 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) | Not Found | 7.3.1: Share of EV in public transport systems 2030: 50% (SDG Targets & indicators) By 2030, increase sales of e-vehicles to cover 90% of all private passenger vehicle sales including two-wheelers and 60% of all four-wheeler public passenger vehicle sales (this public passengertarget does nottake into account electric-rickshaws and electric-tempos) (NDC) | 2030 |
| National Energy Strategy of Nepal | Not Found | Gradually replace 20 percent demand capacity of diesel and petrol cars of the base case in year 2025 with electric and hybrid vehicle in equal share. | 2025 |
| National Energy Strategy of Nepal | Not Found | Gradually replace 30 percent demand capacity of diesel and petrol cars of the base case in year 2030 with electric and hybrid vehicle in equal share. Facilitate imports of hybrid and electric cars by 15 percent. | 2030 |
| National Implementation Plan for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (2080-2087) | Not Found | • By 2025, 25% of the total domestic passenger vehicle sales will be due to electric passenger vehicles. Share of sales to tri-electric public transport vehicles in total: Sales to public transport vehicles to be 20 percent (electric rickshaws and tri-electric tempos are included in target volume of sales to public transport vehicles) | 2025 |
| Nepal LTS | Not Found | : i) In 2025, electric vehicles (e-vehicles) will account for 25 per cent of all private passenger vehicle sales (including two-wheelers) and 20 per cent of all fourwheeler public passenger vehicle sales (excluding electric rickshaws and electric three-wheelers) (Second NDC) | 2025 |
| Nepal LTS | Not Found | Increase e-vehicle sales to 90 percent of all private passenger vehicle sales (including two-wheelers) and 60 percent of all four-wheeler public passenger vehicle sales by 2030. (excluding electric-rickshaws and electric threewheelers). (Second NDC) | 2030 |
| Second Nationally Determined Contribution - NPL | Not Found | Sales of electric vehicles (e-vehicles) in 2025 will be 25% of all private passenger vehicles sales, including two-wheelers and 20% of all four-wheeler public passenger vehicle sales (this public passenger target does not take into account electricrickshaws and electric-tempos) in 2025. | 2025 |
| Second Nationally Determined Contribution - NPL | Not Found | By 2030, increase sales of e-vehicles to cover 90% of all private passenger vehicle sales, including two-wheelers and 60% of all four-wheeler public passenger vehicle sales (the public passenger target does not take into account electric-rickshaws and electric-tempos). | 2030 |
| Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 | Not Found | In 2030 and 2035, increase sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 90% and 95% for all private passenger vehicles (including 2-wheelers), and to 70% and 90% for all public passenger vehicles respectively. (Baseline 2024 - 12.38% of private passenger vehicle sales were BEVs (46% of four-wheelers and 9.6% of twowheelers). 29% of public passenger vehicle sales were BEVs.) | 2030 |
| Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 3.0 | Not Found | In 2030 and 2035, increase sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 90% and 95% for all private passenger vehicles (including 2-wheelers), and to 70% and 90% for all public passenger vehicles respectively. (Baseline 2024 - 12.38% of private passenger vehicle sales were BEVs (46% of four-wheelers and 9.6% of twowheelers). 29% of public passenger vehicle sales were BEVs.) | 2035 |
| Nepal Country Report | 2023 | 25% of all private vehicle sales will be electric 20% of all passenger vehicle sales will be electric | 2025 |
| Nepal Country Report | 2023 | 90% of all private vehicle sales will be electric 60% of all public vehicle sales will be elctric | 2030 |
| Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Mitigation - NPL | 2021 | For energy use in transportation, targets have been set to increase sales of evehicles to cover 90 percent of all private passenger vehicles including twowheelers and 60 percent of four-wheeler public passenger vehicles in the year 2030 thereby lowering the emission by 28 percent compared to the baseline. | 2030 |
Fuel quality improvement
| Assessment of Electric Mobility Targets for Nepal's 2020 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) | Not Found | By 2050, Nepal will decrease its dependency on fossils in the transport sector by 50%. (NDC) | 2050 |
Railway electrification
| Nepal LTS | Not Found | iii) Develop a 200-kilometer electric rail network by 2030 to support public transportation and mass transportation of goods. (Second NDC) | 2030 |
| Second Nationally Determined Contribution - NPL | Not Found | By 2030, develop 200 km of the electric rail network to support public commuting and mass transportation of goods. | 2030 |
| Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Mitigation - NPL | 2021 | Development of 200 Km electric rail network for transportation of people and goods by 2030 | 2030 |
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