Myanmar Transport Air Pollution Profile 2026

Outline

MYANMAR

TRANSPORT AIR POLLUTION PROFILE

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Background

Myanmar confronts an air pollution challenge that has eased modestly yet remains severe by international standards. The annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), weighted by population exposure, declined from 41.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 35.1 micrograms per cubic meter in 2023. Despite this improvement, the 2023 level substantially exceeds both the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter and its interim target of 25 micrograms per cubic meter. South East Asia recorded an average of 20.2 micrograms per cubic meter in 2022, positioning Myanmar above the regional norm. The State of Global Air estimates that transport and international shipping contributed approximately 5.4 percent and 0.8 percent to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, respectively, underscoring the sector's measurable but not dominant share in the broader pollution profile.

The health toll is substantial. World Bank estimates indicate that 24,169 people died prematurely due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, while McDuffie et al. (2021) attribute about 1,471 of these premature deaths directly to transport tailpipe emissions. In 2023, at least 151 individuals died prematurely from occupational exposure to diesel engine exhausts, equivalent to approximately 3 deaths per million population. The economic dimension is equally stark: the World Bank estimated the annual cost of health damages in Myanmar from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure at 33.0 billion USD in 2019, representing about 11 percent of GDP. For comparison, this burden matched the Asia-Pacific average of 10.6 percent of GDP in the same year. Myanmar spent 5.2 percent of GDP on healthcare in 2022, illustrating the disproportionate strain that air pollution imposes relative to public health financing capacity.

Myanmar's economic expansion has not decoupled from transport pollution. Since 2010, GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent. PM 2.5 emissions from the transport sector declined by 2.2 percent between 2000 and 2010, then surged by 11.7 percent between 2010 and 2022. Emissions from other sectors grew by 4.8 percent per year since 2010, indicating that transport pollution accelerated faster during the more recent growth phase. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 19 percent of total PM 2.5 emissions in Myanmar, a significant if not overwhelming share.

Modal composition reveals an unusual pattern. By 2022, the transport sector's PM 2.5 emissions comprised 8 percent from road transport (including non-exhaust emissions), 74 percent from rail, 18 percent from domestic navigation, and 0 percent from domestic aviation. The share attributed to road transport decreased from 11 percent in 2010 to 8 percent by 2022, while domestic navigation's share fell from 35 percent in 2010 to 18 percent by 2022. Within the road sector, IIASA estimates that 82 percent of PM 2.5 emissions in 2025 originate from heavy-duty vehicles, 8 percent from light-duty vehicles, 1 percent from motorcycles, and 8 percent from buses. Rail's dominance in the PM 2.5 emission profile is notable and merits scrutiny, given typical modal distributions elsewhere in the region. Non-exhaust emissions—resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear—contributed 49 percent of road sector emissions in 2022, down from 54 percent in 2010, suggesting that exhaust controls have lagged behind fleet growth.

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) from transport showed a pattern similar to PM 2.5 but with greater volatility. NOx emissions from the transport sector declined by 7.3 percent between 2000 and 2010, then grew by 8.8 percent between 2010 and 2022. Other sectors expanded NOx emissions by 9.1 percent per year since 2010. By 2022, transport accounted for 29 percent of total NOx emissions in Myanmar. Modal shares differed markedly from PM 2.5: road transport contributed 38 percent, rail 43 percent, domestic navigation 16 percent, and domestic aviation 3 percent. Road transport's share fell from 50 percent in 2010 to 38 percent by 2022, while domestic navigation declined from 24 percent to 16 percent over the same period. IIASA estimates that in the road sector in 2025, heavy-duty vehicles and light-duty vehicles each contribute roughly equal shares—46 percent and 47 percent, respectively—with buses at 6 percent and motorcycles negligible.

Sulfur oxides (SOx) present a contrasting trajectory. SOx emissions from transport grew by 11.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 5.6 percent between 2010 and 2022, indicating some moderation in the pace of increase. Other sectors, however, expanded SOx emissions by 14.1 percent per year since 2010. Transport represented only 4 percent of total SOx emissions in Myanmar by 2022. Domestic navigation dominated the transport share at 92 percent, followed by domestic aviation at 3 percent, rail at 5 percent, and road at 0 percent. The near-zero road contribution reflects low sulfur content in road fuels, while the navigation sector's overwhelming share points to high-sulfur marine fuels. The share from domestic navigation edged down slightly from 94 percent in 2010 to 92 percent by 2022.

Methane (CH4) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions from transport grew at moderate rates. CH4 emissions increased by 0.5 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 7.0 percent between 2010 and 2022, with 99 percent originating from the road sector by 2022. NMVOC emissions declined by 3.0 percent between 2000 and 2010, then rose by 6.8 percent between 2010 and 2022, with 91 percent from the road sector by 2022. Black carbon (BC), a potent climate forcer with acute health impacts, showed pronounced shifts. BC emissions from transport fell by 15.6 percent between 2000 and 2010, then grew by 7.9 percent between 2010 and 2022. By 2022, modal shares for BC were 29 percent from road (including non-exhaust), 21 percent from rail, 49 percent from domestic navigation, and 1 percent from domestic aviation. The road share rose from 24 percent in 2010 to 29 percent by 2022, while domestic navigation declined from 66 percent to 49 percent.

Energy use in Myanmar's transport sector remains heavily fossil-dependent. In 2023, the road sector accounted for approximately 98 percent of total transport energy consumption, with rail, domestic navigation, and domestic aviation contributing about 0 percent, 0 percent, and 2 percent, respectively. Oil products supplied 96 percent of transport sector energy in 2023, up from 88 percent in both 2010 and 2015, indicating a deepening reliance on petroleum. Biofuels and electricity each constituted 0 percent of transport energy consumption by 2023, signaling negligible diversification despite global electrification trends.

Myanmar's grid emission factor stood at 570 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour in 2024. Regional comparisons reveal proximity to neighbors: Asia-Pacific averaged 559 grams and South East Asia 583 grams per kilowatt-hour. Myanmar saw a regression of 4.1 percent in grid carbon intensity since 2015, while Asia-Pacific improved by 1.4 percent per year over the same period. This backward drift complicates the climate case for transport electrification in the near term. Fossil fuel subsidies impose additional external costs, with 18 percent of those costs manifesting as incremental local air pollution. Fuel tax revenues comprise approximately 4 percent of Myanmar's total government revenue, yet face structural decline as transport electrification progresses elsewhere in the region, posing fiscal sustainability questions.

Electric vehicle imports into Myanmar totaled 277 million USD between 2017 and 2024. By 2024, EVs represented 31 percent of total road vehicle imports, composed of 95 percent light-duty vehicles, 5 percent two-wheelers, and 0 percent goods vehicles and buses. UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index assigned Myanmar a score of 54 out of 100, with sub-scores of 14 in technology and market, 10 in policy, 18 in energy, and 12 in financial instruments. These scores indicate early-stage readiness but highlight gaps in enabling infrastructure and regulatory frameworks. Motorization reached 151 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, up from 99 in 2000, yet remained well below the Asia-Pacific average of 317 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, suggesting continued upward pressure on vehicle ownership and associated emissions.

Urban spatial patterns intensify health risks from transport emissions. The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) estimates that only 84 percent of Myanmar's urban population live beyond 500 meters from highways, meaning 16 percent reside in close proximity to high-traffic corridors with elevated exposure to exhaust and non-exhaust pollutants. Public transport access remains critically deficient. Among the 64 urban agglomerations in Myanmar, only 30 percent achieved an access level of 50 percent or better, defined as half the population living within 500 meters of public transport. In 23 percent of cities, 8 residents out of 10 do not have convenient access to public transport, a deficit that entrenches private vehicle dependence, constrains mobility for lower-income groups, and perpetuates localized pollution hotspots. The intersection of weak public transport provision, rising motorization, and concentrated urban exposure creates conditions where transport air pollution imposes disproportionate health and economic costs on Myanmar's cities.