Mongolia confronts a severe air pollution crisis that has intensified over the past two decades. The annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), weighted by population exposure, surged from 27.5 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 42.7 micrograms per cubic meter in 2023. This 2023 level substantially exceeds both the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter and its interim target of 25 micrograms per cubic meter, positioning Mongolia well above the East Asia regional average of 24.9 micrograms per cubic meter recorded in 2022. The transport sector, while not the dominant contributor to ambient air pollution, plays a measurable role in this challenge. According to State of Global Air estimates, transport and international shipping contributed approximately 4.4 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, to ambient PM 2.5 concentrations in 2019.

The health consequences of air pollution exposure in Mongolia are considerable and quantifiable. In 2019 alone, the World Bank estimated that 2,245 premature deaths occurred due to ambient PM 2.5 exposure. Research by McDuffie and colleagues (2021) attributes roughly 110 of these premature deaths specifically to transport tailpipe emissions. Occupational exposure presents an additional health dimension—in 2023, at least 10 workers died prematurely from exposure to diesel engine exhausts, equivalent to approximately 3 deaths per million population. The economic toll reflects the gravity of this public health crisis. The World Bank calculated that health damages from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure cost Mongolia 3.8 billion dollars in 2019, representing about 9 percent of the nation's gross domestic product. This proportion approaches the Asia-Pacific regional average of 10.6 percent of GDP and exceeds Mongolia's healthcare expenditure, which stood at 8.9 percent of GDP in 2022.

Spatial patterns of pollution exposure compound these health risks. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) estimates indicate that only 72 percent of Mongolia's urban population resides more than 500 meters from highways, meaning more than one in four urban residents live in close proximity to major roadways, where pollutant concentrations typically peak. This proximity factor amplifies exposure risks, particularly in Ulaanbaatar and other urban centers where traffic volumes concentrate along major arterials.

Mongolia's economic trajectory has closely paralleled its transport emissions profile. Since 2010, the country's GDP has expanded at an average annual rate of 8.7 percent, reflecting robust economic growth that has driven increased mobility demand. PM 2.5 emissions from the transport sector grew by 8.8 percent annually between 2000 and 2010, slightly outpacing subsequent economic growth. This growth rate moderated to 6.5 percent per year between 2010 and 2022, though it continued to exceed the 1.5 percent annual growth rate of PM 2.5 emissions from other sectors during the same period. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 16 percent of Mongolia's total PM 2.5 emissions.

The modal composition of transport emissions reveals a striking pattern dominated by rail. In 2022, rail accounted for 95 percent of transport PM 2.5 emissions, while road transport contributed just 5 percent, domestic aviation negligible amounts, and domestic navigation zero percent. This distribution represents a shift from 2010, when road transport's share stood at 7 percent before declining to its current 5 percent. Within the road sector specifically, IIASA estimates for 2025 project that light-duty vehicles contribute the largest share at 45 percent of PM 2.5 emissions, followed by motorcycles at 38 percent and heavy-duty vehicles at 17 percent, with buses contributing negligible amounts.

A notable evolution in road-sector emissions is the increasing importance of non-exhaust sources. By 2022, PM2.5 emissions from resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear accounted for 60 percent of road-sector emissions, up from 44 percent in 2010. This shift reflects both improvements in exhaust emission controls and the persistence of unpaved roads and seasonal dust conditions that characterize Mongolia's geography and climate.

Beyond particulate matter, Mongolia's transport sector generates a suite of air pollutants with varying health and environmental implications. Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from transport declined by 2.0 percent between 2000 and 2010 before reversing course to grow by 4.4 percent annually between 2010 and 2022. Other sectors saw NOx emissions expand by 2.4 percent per year since 2010. The transport sector accounted for 16 percent of Mongolia's total NOx emissions by 2022, with rail contributing 76 percent of transport NOx, followed by road at 24 percent. IIASA's 2025 road sector estimates indicate light duty vehicles generate 92 percent of road NOx emissions, with heavy duty vehicles at 7 percent, motorcycles at 1 percent, and buses contributing negligible amounts.

Sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions from transport present a different trajectory. These emissions declined sharply by 18.0 percent between 2000 and 2010, likely reflecting fuel quality improvements, before growing by 6.3 percent annually between 2010 and 2022. Despite this recent growth, transport's contribution to total national SOx emissions remained negligible at approximately 0 percent by 2022. Within transport SOx emissions, rail dominated at 96 percent, followed by road at 3 percent and domestic aviation at 1 percent.

Methane (CH4) emissions from transport declined by 2.7 percent between 2000 and 2010, then grew by 2.3 percent annually from 2010 to 2022, with road transport accounting for 91 percent of transport CH4 emissions by 2022. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) followed a similar pattern, declining by 3.7 percent in the first period before growing by 2.9 percent per year in the second, with road transport contributing 86 percent of transport NMVOC emissions by 2022. Black carbon (BC) emissions from transport remained nearly flat between 2000 and 2010, declining by just 0.1 percent, before accelerating with 4.2 percent annual growth between 2010 and 2022. Rail dominated transport BC emissions at 66 percent in 2022, with road contributing 34 percent, down from 50 percent in 2010.

Mongolia's transport sector energy consumption profile remains overwhelmingly fossil fuel-dependent. In 2023, road transport consumed 76 percent of total transport energy, with rail at 23 percent, domestic aviation at 1 percent, and domestic navigation contributing negligible amounts. Oil products constituted 100 percent of transport sector energy consumption in 2023, unchanged from 2010 and 2015 levels. Biofuels and electricity each represented 0 percent of transport energy consumption, indicating minimal progress toward fuel diversification or electrification.

The electricity grid's carbon intensity poses challenges to the potential benefits of electrification. Mongolia's grid emission factor stood at 808 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour in 2024, substantially exceeding the Asia-Pacific average of 559 and the East Asia regional average of 544. While Mongolia achieved a modest 0.8 percent annual improvement since 2015, this lagged the Asia-Pacific region's 1.4 percent annual improvement rate. This high grid carbon intensity means that electric vehicles charged on Mongolia's current grid would deliver more limited emissions reductions compared to countries with cleaner electricity generation portfolios.

Electric vehicle adoption remains in its infancy despite recent growth. Between 2017 and 2024, Mongolia imported 87 million dollars' worth of electric vehicles, representing just 2 percent of total road vehicle imports by 2024. The composition of these EV imports favored light-duty vehicles at 78 percent, followed by goods vehicles and buses at 13 percent, and two-wheelers at 9 percent. UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index assigned Mongolia a score of 58 out of 100, with component scores of 14 for technology and market, 10 for policy, 20 for energy infrastructure, and 14 for financial instruments. These scores indicate significant gaps across multiple dimensions essential to large-scale EV deployment.

The fiscal and economic dimensions of transport energy underscore competing priorities and challenges of transition. Fossil fuel subsidies impose additional external costs on Mongolian society, with 38 percent of these costs manifesting as increased local air pollution. Meanwhile, fuel tax revenues constitute approximately 2 percent of Mongolia's total government revenue, creating a fiscal dependency that faces structural decline as transport electrification potentially advances. This revenue vulnerability requires proactive policy planning to replace declining fuel tax income while avoiding subsidies that perpetuate fossil fuel dependence.

Motorization rates have climbed steadily, reaching 302 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, compared to 267 in 2000. This places Mongolia close to the Asia-Pacific average of 317 vehicles per thousand population in 2024, suggesting continued demand growth for private vehicle ownership. However, public transport accessibility remains severely constrained. Among urban agglomerations in Mongolia, data indicate that in none of the cities do 8 residents out of 10 have convenient access to public transport, pointing to a significant infrastructure and service provision gap that likely perpetuates private vehicle dependence and associated emissions.

EV mandates/ procurement

Fuel quality improvement

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