India confronts a severe air quality crisis, with population-weighted annual average concentrations of PM 2.5 reaching 54.1 micrograms per cubic meter in 2023—more than ten times the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter and substantially exceeding even the interim target of 25 micrograms per cubic meter. This deterioration from 50.8 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 positions India above the South Asia regional average of 40.1 micrograms per cubic meter recorded in 2022. The State of Global Air estimates that transport and international shipping contributed approximately 6.7 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, to ambient PM 2.5 concentrations in 2019. Perhaps most concerning from an exposure perspective, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) estimates that only 76 percent of India's urban population resides beyond 500 meters from highways, leaving nearly a quarter of urban residents in close proximity to major pollution sources.

The human toll of air pollution in India is staggering. The World Bank estimates that 979,682 people died prematurely due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, while McDuffie et al. (2021) attribute approximately 70,585 of these premature deaths specifically to transport tailpipe emissions. Additionally, occupational exposure to diesel engine exhausts claimed at least 1,637 lives in 2023, equivalent to roughly one death per million population. The economic consequences are equally sobering: the World Bank estimated that annual health damages from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure amounted to $1,021.9 billion in 2019—approximately 11 percent of India's GDP—compared to 10.6 percent of GDP across the Asia-Pacific region. To put this in perspective, India allocated only 3.3 percent of GDP to healthcare expenditure in 2022.

The evolution of transport emissions in India reveals a complex picture of economic growth, sectoral shifts, and partial decoupling. Since 2010, India's GDP has grown at an impressive 8.0 percent annually, yet PM 2.5 emissions from the transport sector have shown more moderate trends—growing by 2.1 percent between 2000 and 2010 before declining marginally by 0.2 percent between 2010 and 2022. Meanwhile, PM 2.5 emissions from other sectors have continued growing at 1.5 percent per year since 2010, highlighting the relative containment of transport sector emissions growth. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 6 percent of total PM 2.5 emissions in India, with modal distribution showing 52 percent from road transport (including non-exhaust emissions), 21 percent from rail, 27 percent from domestic navigation, and 1 percent from domestic aviation. The road transport share has remained relatively stable, declining only marginally from 53 percent in 2010 to 52 percent by 2022, while domestic navigation's contribution has more than doubled from 12 percent to 27 percent over the same period.

Within the road sector, heavy-duty vehicles dominate PM 2.5 emissions, with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) estimating that these vehicles will account for 68 percent of road sector PM 2.5 emissions in 2025, followed by light-duty vehicles at 19 percent, buses at 8 percent, and motorcycles at 5 percent. An emerging concern is the growing contribution of non-exhaust emissions: by 2022, PM 2.5 emissions from resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear constituted 30 percent of road sector emissions—a substantial increase from 18 percent in 2010. This trend suggests that even as tailpipe emissions are addressed through cleaner fuels and technologies, non-exhaust sources will require greater attention. In domestic navigation, IIASA projects that 55 percent of PM 2.5 emissions in 2025 will come from large vessels and 45 percent from inland waterway vessels, with medium vessels contributing negligibly.

Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from India's transport sector have followed a different trajectory than PM 2.5, with more sustained growth: 5.9 percent annually between 2000 and 2010, moderating to 0.5 percent between 2010 and 2022. Other sectors have shown stronger NOx growth at 3.2 percent per year since 2010. By 2022, transport accounted for 21 percent of total NOx emissions in India, with road transport responsible for 86 percent of transport NOx, rail contributing 4 percent, domestic navigation 8 percent, and domestic aviation 2 percent. The road transport share has declined modestly from 88 percent in 2010, while domestic navigation's contribution has doubled from 4 percent. Heavy-duty vehicles are projected to account for 79 percent of road sector NOx emissions in 2025, with buses at 10 percent, light-duty vehicles at 9 percent, and motorcycles at 2 percent. These NOx emissions are particularly concerning because they contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone and secondary PM 2.5, amplifying the air quality impacts beyond primary emissions.

Sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions present a markedly different pattern, with transport contributing only 1 percent of India's total SOx emissions by 2022. However, the sector has experienced rapid growth—1.2 percent annually between 2000 and 2010, accelerating to 6.4 percent between 2010 and 2022, compared to 3.5 percent annual growth in other sectors since 2010. Domestic navigation dominates transport SOx emissions at 95 percent, increasing sharply from 87 percent in 2010, with domestic aviation at 3 percent and road and rail each at 1 percent. Road transport's share has collapsed from 5 percent in 2010 to just 1 percent by 2022, likely reflecting fuel quality improvements. The dominance of maritime sources in SOx emissions underscores the importance of fuel sulfur content regulations in the shipping sector.

India's transport sector is also a source of potent climate pollutants and precursors. Methane (CH4) emissions from transport grew at 2.6 percent between 2000 and 2010 and 2.7 percent between 2010 and 2022, with the road sector accounting for 99 percent of transport CH4 emissions by 2022. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), which contribute to ozone formation, declined by 2.3 percent between 2000 and 2010 before growing 2.0 percent between 2010 and 2022, with 98 percent originating from road transport. Black carbon (BC), a short-lived climate pollutant with significant warming potential, remained essentially flat between 2000 and 2010 (0.0 percent growth) before declining 0.7 percent between 2010 and 2022. By 2022, BC emissions were distributed across road transport (77 percent, including non-exhaust sources), domestic navigation (21 percent), rail (2 percent), and domestic aviation (less than 1 percent). The road sector's share declined notably from 89 percent in 2010, while navigation increased from 8 percent to 21 percent.

The energy composition of India's transport sector is gradually evolving, though fossil fuels remain dominant. In 2023, the road sector accounted for 81 percent of total transport energy consumption, with rail, domestic navigation, and domestic aviation contributing 8 percent, 4 percent, and 8 percent, respectively. Oil products comprised 78 percent of transport sector energy consumption in 2023—a notable decrease from 94 percent in 2010 and 96 percent in 2015. Biofuels and electricity constituted 6 percent and 5 percent of transport energy consumption, respectively, by 2023. The rail sector has made particularly impressive progress in electrification, with electricity accounting for approximately 65 percent of rail energy consumption in 2023, up substantially from 33 percent in 2010. However, India's grid emission factor of 707 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour in 2024—matching the South Asia regional average but exceeding the Asia-Pacific average of 559—tempers the climate benefits of electrification. Grid decarbonization has proceeded at a modest 0.7 percent annual improvement since 2015, slower than the Asia-Pacific average of 1.4 percent per year.

India's policy and market environment for transport decarbonization presents both opportunities and constraints. Between 2010 and 2015, implicit fossil fuel subsidies in transport averaged approximately $44.6 billion annually, incurring additional external costs to society with an estimated 35 percent attributable to increased local air pollution. These subsidies create perverse incentives that discourage cleaner alternatives and vehicle efficiency improvements. Simultaneously, fuel tax revenues comprise approximately 9 percent of India's total government revenue, creating fiscal challenges as transport electrification progresses and potentially erodes this revenue base. The value of electric vehicle (EV) imports reached $712 million between 2017 and 2024, representing 24 percent of total road vehicle imports by 2024. The composition of EV imports reflects consumer preferences and market dynamics: 98 percent light-duty vehicles, 1 percent two-wheelers, and 1 percent goods vehicles and buses. The United Nations Environment Programme's E-mobility Readiness Index assigns India a score of 87 out of 100, with component scores of 20 for technology and market, 25 for policy, 21 for energy, and 21 for financial instruments, suggesting moderate readiness across multiple dimensions.

Motorization in India has intensified significantly, with vehicle ownership reaching 267 vehicles per thousand population in 2024—up from 183 in 2000 but still below the Asia-Pacific average of 317 vehicles per thousand population. Public transport infrastructure development has lagged behind motorization, creating critical gaps in low-emission mobility options. India had only 1.8 kilometers of rapid transit per million urban population in 2015, increasing to 3.4 kilometers by 2024—a positive trend but still insufficient relative to the scale of urban growth and motorization. Perhaps most troubling, among India's 1,235 urban agglomerations, only 10 percent achieved an access level of 50 percent or better, meaning that in the vast majority of cities, fewer than half of residents live within 500 meters of public transport services. In 39 percent of cities, approximately 8 out of 10 residents lack convenient access to public transport, forcing greater reliance on private vehicles and contributing to worsening urban air quality and congestion. These infrastructure deficits underscore the urgent need for accelerated investment in sustainable urban mobility systems to address both air quality and climate objectives.

EV mandates/ procurement

Port electrification

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