Georgia Transport Air Pollution Profile 2026

Outline

GEORGIA

TRANSPORT AIR POLLUTION PROFILE

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Background

Georgia, an upper-middle-income economy in the Central and West Asia region with a population of 3.8 million and a GDP per capita of $27,419 (2024), faces significant air quality challenges despite modest improvements over recent decades. The annual average population-weighted concentration of PM 2.5 decreased from 20.4 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 18.6 micrograms per cubic meter in 2023. While this represents progress, the current level remains nearly four times higher than the World Health Organization's air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter, though it stays below the interim target of 25 micrograms per cubic meter. Notably, Georgia's air quality performance exceeds the Central and West Asia regional average of 30.4 micrograms per cubic meter (2022), yet the health consequences remain substantial.

The health and economic toll of air pollution in Georgia is profound. World Bank estimates indicate that 3,112 people died prematurely due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, with McDuffie et al. (2021) attributing approximately 251 of these deaths specifically to transport tailpipe emissions. Additionally, occupational exposure to diesel engine exhausts claimed at least 17 lives prematurely in 2023, equivalent to 4 deaths per million population. The economic burden is equally staggering: the World Bank estimated that health damages from ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure cost Georgia $7.1 billion in 2019, representing approximately 12 percent of GDP. This proportion exceeds the Asia-Pacific regional average of 10.6 percent of GDP and is nearly double Georgia's healthcare expenditure, which stood at 7.3 percent of GDP in 2022. These figures underscore the magnitude of air pollution as both a public health crisis and an economic drain on national resources.

The State of Global Air estimates that transport and international shipping contributed approximately 7.6 percent and 0.4 percent to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, respectively. However, the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy reveals a critical spatial dimension to this challenge: only 50 percent of Georgia's urban population lives beyond 500 meters from highways, meaning half of urban residents face heightened exposure to traffic-related pollution in their daily lives. This proximity factor amplifies the health risks associated with transport emissions, particularly in urban centers where population density concentrates exposure.

Georgia's transport sector has experienced dynamic shifts in emissions patterns over the past two decades, reflecting broader economic and technological changes. Since 2010, the country's GDP has grown at an impressive 9.1 percent annually, accompanied by evolving pollution profiles across different pollutants. PM 2.5 emissions from transport grew rapidly at 9.7 percent per year between 2000 and 2010 but decelerated dramatically to just 0.5 percent annual growth between 2010 and 2022. In comparison, PM 2.5 emissions from other sectors have grown at 7.5 percent per year since 2010, suggesting that relative progress in transport sector emissions control has been offset by increases elsewhere in the economy. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 26 percent of total PM 2.5 emissions in Georgia, establishing it as a major but not dominant contributor to particulate matter pollution.

The modal distribution of transport emissions reveals an overwhelming dominance of road transport, which has intensified over time. By 2022, road transport was responsible for 99 percent of transport PM 2.5 emissions (including non-exhaust emissions), with rail contributing 1 percent. This represents a significant shift from 2010, when road transport accounted for 90 percent of the total. Within the road sector, heavy-duty vehicles bear the greatest responsibility, with IIASA estimating that they generate 86 percent of PM 2.5 emissions in 2025, followed by light-duty vehicles at 9 percent, buses at 5 percent, and motorcycles at near zero. The dramatic decline in domestic navigation's share—from 10 percent in 2010 to effectively zero by 2022—reflects structural changes in freight and passenger movement patterns or potential shifts to cleaner maritime technologies.

Non-exhaust emissions have emerged as an increasingly important component of road transport pollution. By 2022, PM 2.5 emissions from resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear contributed 27 percent of road sector emissions, up from 19 percent in 2010. This seven percentage point increase highlights a critical challenge for air quality management: even as exhaust emissions may be controlled through cleaner engines and fuels, the physical processes of road wear and vehicle operation continue to generate substantial particulate matter. This trend suggests that comprehensive transport air quality strategies must address both tailpipe and non-tailpipe emission sources through integrated approaches including fleet renewal, road surface management, and modal shift policies.

Beyond particulate matter, Georgia's transport sector contributes significantly to other air pollutants with distinct health and environmental implications. Nitrogen oxides (NOx), which contribute to ground-level ozone formation and respiratory diseases, present a particularly acute challenge. NOx emissions from transport grew 7.0 percent annually between 2000 and 2010, then slowed to 0.5 percent growth between 2010 and 2022. However, NOx emissions from other sectors have grown more rapidly at 8.9 percent per year since 2010. By 2022, transport accounted for 62 percent of total NOx emissions in Georgia, making it the dominant source of this pollutant. Road transport comprises 99 percent of transport NOx emissions, with heavy-duty vehicles contributing 63 percent, light-duty vehicles 32 percent, buses 4 percent, and motorcycles negligible amounts according to IIASA estimates for 2025.

Sulfur oxides (SOx) exhibit a different trajectory, reflecting changes in fuel quality and sectoral activity. SOx emissions from transport grew 13.2 percent annually between 2000 and 2010 but declined 12.2 percent per year between 2010 and 2022, likely reflecting improvements in fuel sulfur content. Despite this decline, SOx emissions from other sectors have grown 6.6 percent annually since 2010. Transport now represents just 2 percent of total SOx emissions in Georgia by 2022, a relatively minor contribution. Within transport SOx emissions, road transport dominates at 91 percent, with domestic navigation at 8 percent and rail at 1 percent. The dramatic shift in modal composition—road transport increased from 24 percent in 2010 to 91 percent by 2022, while domestic navigation fell from 76 percent to 8 percent—suggests either substantial fuel quality improvements in maritime transport or a significant contraction of domestic shipping activity.

Other pollutants complete the transport emissions profile. Methane (CH4) emissions from transport grew 6.6 percent annually between 2000 and 2010, then 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2022, with 100 percent originating from the road sector by 2022. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions grew 4.5 percent between 2000 and 2010 and 2.5 percent between 2010 and 2022, also entirely from road transport by 2022. Black carbon (BC), a particularly harmful component of particulate matter with both health and climate implications, grew 10.1 percent annually between 2000 and 2010 but has remained essentially flat since then, declining 0.2 percent per year between 2010 and 2022. By 2022, road transport accounted for 100 percent of transport BC emissions, up from 96 percent in 2010, with domestic navigation's contribution declining from 4 percent to zero over this period.

Georgia's transport energy profile remains heavily dependent on petroleum products, though the sector's structure presents opportunities for diversification. In 2023, the road sector dominated transport energy consumption at 99 percent, with rail at 1 percent and domestic navigation and aviation at negligible levels. Oil products constituted 88 percent of transport sector energy consumption, representing a decrease from 93 percent in 2010 but an increase from a low of 75 percent in 2015. This U-shaped trajectory suggests that initial diversification efforts faced setbacks or that economic conditions temporarily favored oil-based fuels. Biofuels and electricity collectively accounted for just 1 percent of transport energy consumption by 2023, indicating that low-carbon alternatives remain marginal despite their potential to reduce local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

The electrification of Georgia's transport sector faces both opportunities and challenges related to grid characteristics and market development. Georgia's grid emission factor stands at 143 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour in 2024, significantly lower than the Asia-Pacific average of 559 and the Central and West Asia average of 495, reflecting the country's substantial hydroelectric generation capacity. This relatively clean grid means that electric vehicle adoption would yield immediate air quality and climate benefits compared to fossil fuel alternatives. However, the grid emission factor has improved by only 1.0 percent annually since 2015, slower than the Asia-Pacific average improvement of 1.4 percent per year, suggesting limited progress in further decarbonizing electricity generation. Within the transport sector, electricity penetration in rail decreased from 100 percent in 2010 to approximately 90 percent by 2023, representing a counterintuitive regression in electrification that merits investigation.

Electric vehicle market development in Georgia shows nascent growth potential. Between 2017 and 2024, EV imports reached $7 million, representing 4 percent of total road vehicle imports by 2024. The modal composition of EV imports reveals interesting patterns: two-wheelers dominate at 65 percent, followed by goods vehicles and buses at 29 percent, and light-duty vehicles at just 6 percent. UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index scores Georgia at 53 out of 100, with particularly weak performance in technology and market (10), policy (10), and financial instruments (10), but relatively stronger showing in energy (23). These scores indicate that substantial policy, regulatory, and financial ecosystem development is required to accelerate the transition to electric mobility.

Georgia's transport system faces structural characteristics that complicate efforts to reduce air pollution. Motorization has increased from 343 vehicles per thousand population in 2000 to 514 in 2024, substantially exceeding the Asia-Pacific average of 317 vehicles per thousand population. This rapid motorization reflects rising incomes and economic growth but intensifies pressure on urban air quality, road infrastructure, and energy consumption. The challenge is compounded by fiscal considerations: implicit fossil fuel subsidies impose additional external costs on Georgian society, with 43 percent of these costs manifesting as increased local air pollution. Simultaneously, fuel tax revenues comprise approximately 8 percent of total government revenue, creating a fiscal dependency that faces structural decline as transport electrification progresses. This dual challenge—removing harmful subsidies while replacing revenue from declining fuel consumption—requires careful policy sequencing and alternative revenue mechanisms.

Public transport accessibility presents another critical dimension of the air quality challenge. In 2015, Georgia had 12.2 kilometers of rapid transit per million urban population, which decreased to 11.8 kilometers by 2024, indicating stagnation or modest regression in mass transit infrastructure relative to population growth. Among the five urban agglomerations in Georgia, only 40 percent achieved an access level of 50 percent or better, meaning that in these cities, at least half the population lives within 500 meters of public transport. Conversely, in 40 percent of Georgia's urban agglomerations, eight out of ten residents lack convenient access to public transport. This accessibility deficit perpetuates car dependency, undermines efforts to shift travel to less polluting modes, and concentrates air pollution impacts on communities least able to access alternatives. Improving public transport coverage and service quality represents a foundational strategy for reducing transport air pollution while advancing social equity and economic efficiency objectives that align with broader development goals.