Armenia Transport Air Pollution Profile 2026

Outline

ARMENIA

TRANSPORT AIR POLLUTION PROFILE

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Background

Armenia, an upper-middle-income economy in the Central and West Asia region with a population of 3.0 million (2024) and a GDP per capita of $23,281, faces significant challenges related to transport-sector air pollution. The country's annual average population-weighted concentration of PM 2.5 decreased modestly from 29.6 micrograms per cubic meter in 2000 to 28.6 in 2023. While this represents progress, the 2023 level substantially exceeds both the WHO air quality guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter and the interim target of 25 micrograms per cubic meter, remaining just below the regional average of 30.4 micrograms per cubic meter in Central and West Asia in 2022.

The transport sector plays a critical role in Armenia's air pollution landscape. According to the State of Global Air, transport and international shipping contributed approximately 9.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, to ambient PM 2.5 concentrations in 2019. This contribution has grown substantially over time—PM2.5 emissions from the transport sector increased by 5.0 percent between 2000 and 2010, and then accelerated to 11.0 percent growth between 2010 and 2022. By 2022, the transport sector accounted for 50 percent of total PM2.5 emissions in Armenia, underscoring its dominance in the country's air pollution profile. This growth has occurred alongside rapid economic expansion, with Armenia's GDP growing at 8.4 percent per year since 2010.

Road transport overwhelmingly dominates Armenia's transport emissions profile. By 2022, road transport accounted for 100 percent of transport PM2.5 emissions, with no measurable contributions from rail, domestic navigation, or domestic aviation—a distribution that has remained unchanged since 2010. Within the road sector, heavy-duty vehicles constitute the primary source of pollution. IIASA estimates indicate that 99 percent of PM 2.5 emissions in Armenia's road sector in 2025 originate from heavy-duty vehicles, with light-duty vehicles contributing just 1 percent and motorcycles and buses contributing negligible amounts. Non-exhaust emissions from resuspended dust, brake wear, and tire wear have declined relative to road-sector emissions, decreasing from 80 percent in 2010 to 38 percent by 2022, suggesting an increase in exhaust-related emissions from combustion processes.

The transport sector's air pollution impacts span multiple pollutants. NOx emissions from transport grew by 3.6 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 3.9 percent between 2010 and 2022, with the transport sector responsible for 73 percent of total NOx emissions in Armenia by 2022. Heavy-duty vehicles again dominate, accounting for 96 percent of road sector NOx emissions in 2025, with light-duty vehicles contributing 3 percent. In contrast, SOx emissions from transport declined by 3.5 percent between 2000 and 2010 and by 1.9 percent between 2010 and 2022, although the transport sector still accounted for 5 percent of total SOx emissions by 2022. Black carbon (BC) emissions from transport declined by 2.2 percent between 2000 and 2010 but surged by 22.5 percent between 2010 and 2022, reflecting changes in vehicle fleet composition and fuel quality. Methane (CH4) emissions from transport grew by 16.8 percent between 2000 and 2010 before declining by 2.9 percent between 2010 and 2022, while non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions increased by 1.4 percent and 1.8 percent across the same respective periods.

Armenia's transport sector energy consumption reflects a heavy dependence on oil products. In 2023, the road sector accounted for approximately 99 percent of total transport energy consumption, with rail, domestic navigation, and domestic aviation accounting for 1 percent, 0 percent, and 0 percent, respectively. Oil products accounted for 61 percent of transport sector energy consumption in 2023, up from 51 percent in 2010 and 37 percent in 2015. Biofuels and electricity represented only 0 percent and 1 percent of transport energy consumption, respectively, by 2023. While Armenia's grid emission factor of 244 gCO2 per kWh in 2024 compares favorably with the Asia-Pacific average of 559 and the Central and West Asia average of 495, the country has experienced a regression of 0.9 percent since 2015, contrasting with the 1.4 percent annual improvement seen across the Asia-Pacific. Fossil fuel subsidies impose additional external costs on Armenian society, with 20 percent of these costs manifesting as increased local air pollution.

The health and economic consequences of transport-related air pollution in Armenia are substantial. The World Bank estimates that 3,091 people died prematurely due to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2019, with McDuffie and colleagues attributing approximately 284 of these premature deaths specifically to transport tailpipe emissions. In 2023, at least 11 people died prematurely from occupational exposure to diesel engine exhaust, equivalent to about 4 deaths per million population. The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy estimates that only 45 percent of Armenia's urban population lives beyond 500 meters from highways, indicating widespread exposure to traffic-related pollution. The World Bank calculated that the annual cost of health damages in Armenia due to ambient and household PM 2.5 exposure reached $4.5 billion in 2019, representing approximately 11 percent of GDP—comparable to the 10.6 percent of GDP estimated for Asia-Pacific and notably similar to Armenia's healthcare expenditure of 10.0 percent of GDP in 2022.

Due to these challenges, Armenia has begun transitioning toward cleaner vehicle technologies, though progress remains limited. The value of electric vehicle imports reached $214 million between 2017 and 2024, representing 16 percent of total road vehicle imports by 2024. These imports comprise 86 percent of light-duty vehicles, 13 percent of goods vehicles and buses, and 1 percent of two-wheelers. However, UNEP's E-mobility Readiness Index assigns Armenia a score of 58 out of 100, with component scores of 10 in technology and market, 10 in policy, 23 in energy, and 15 in financial instruments—indicating significant gaps in policy frameworks, market development, and financial support mechanisms needed to accelerate the clean vehicle transition. Motorization rates have increased from 200 vehicles per thousand population in 2000 to 221 in 2024, though this remains below the Asia-Pacific average of 317.

Armenia's public transport infrastructure and accessibility present additional challenges. In 2015, the country had 6.6 kilometers of rapid transit per million urban population, which decreased slightly to 6.5 kilometers by 2024. Among Armenia's three urban agglomerations, only 33 percent achieved an access level of 50 percent or better, meaning that in the majority of cities, the population lacks convenient access to public transport defined as living within 500 meters of a transit stop. In no Armenian cities do eight out of ten residents enjoy convenient access to public transport, highlighting significant gaps in public transport coverage and accessibility that likely contribute to continued dependence on private vehicles and associated air pollution.