The ATO road safety profiles offer insights into the road safety in 28 Asia-Pacific countries by utilizing road safety related data from various sources and policy information extracted from a range of documents.

The profiles were created by the Asian Transport Observatory —in collaboration with the Asia Pacific Road Safety Observatory (APRSO), and the International Road Federation (IRF)— as an input to global discussions on road safety, in time for the Fourth Global Ministerial Conference on Road Safety in Marrakech, Morocco.

Road safety in Tajikistan presents a complex picture characterized by both progress and persistent challenges. While the country has made strides in reducing road traffic fatalities, significant issues remain, demanding a concerted and sustained effort to achieve further improvements. In 2021, it was estimated about 1 thousand fatalities in Tajikistan due to road crashes, representing 1.1% of all deaths. This translates to a road traffic crash fatality rate of 13.9 per 100,000 population. While this rate is comparable to the Asia-Pacific average of 15.2 and slightly higher than the Central and West Asia average of 13.1, a deeper dive into the data reveals nuances that require attention.

While the overall fatality rate provides a general overview, data collection and reporting discrepancies can hinder a complete understanding of the issue. Consistent and reliable data is crucial for effective policy-making and targeted interventions. Further investigation into the methodologies used for data collection is needed to ensure accurate and comparable statistics.

Disaggregating the data reveals essential trends. While the share of female fatalities decreased slightly from 21% to 20% between 2010 and 2021, this still represents a significant number of lives lost. The combined share of minors (<14 years old) and seniors (>65 years old) in road crash fatalities changed from 25% to 23% between 2015 and 2019, a slight improvement, but still a vulnerable group. A particularly concerning statistic is the high proportion of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities, accounting for 42% of the total in 2021, significantly higher than the Asia-Pacific average of 31%. This highlights the need for focused interventions to protect these vulnerable road users.

The economic burden of road crashes in Tajikistan is substantial. Fatalities and serious injuries cost an estimated 338 million USD in 2021, equivalent to roughly 4% of the country's GDP. This figure underscores the significant impact on the economy, families, productivity, and healthcare systems.

Road crashes constitute about 81% of the total implicit costs due to fossil fuel subsidies in transport. IRAP estimates that an annual investment of 62 million USD, or just about 0.7% of Tajikistan's GDP, could save about 500 fatalities annually.

Data on road crash ratings in Tajikistan is limited, making it difficult to assess the safety standards of the road infrastructure. Improving data collection and analysis in this area is crucial for identifying high-risk locations and implementing appropriate safety measures. Tajikistan also had about 33 fatalities per thousand kilometers of road.

Data on vehicle fleet in Tajikistan is not available to understand the dynamics of motorization and its impact on road safety.

Benchmarking Tajikistan's road safety performance against regional and global averages provides valuable insights. WHO estimates the fatalities in Tajikistan changing from 21.8 in 2010 to 13.9 fatalities per 100,000 population in 2021, equivalent to a -36% decrease. During this period, Asia-Pacific experienced an improvement of about -19% while Central and West Asia also decreased by -12%

• Urgent action needed to reduce road fatalities The Decade of Action for Road Safety 2021-2030 aims to cut road fatalities in half by 2030. An annual reduction of at least 7.4% is necessary to achieve this.
• Asia-Pacific region falling behind Despite reaching a peak in road crash fatalities, the Asia-Pacific region is not on track to meet the 2030 goal. The average annual reduction in deaths between 2016 and 2021 was only 0.6%, far below the required rate.
• Varying progress across Asia Using the 2016-2021 road crash fatality growth rate as a basis for estimates until 2030:
  • Only 3 Asian countries are projected to achieve the 50% reduction target by 2030.
  • 18 Asian countries are expected to reduce fatalities by at least 25%.
  • Worryingly, 7 Asian countries will continue to increase road fatalities, moving further away from the target.
• In Tajikistan, road crash fatalities decreased by approximately -3.6% per year between 2016 and 2021. However, this is not enough to reach the 2030 target to halve the fatalities by 2030

Notably, there are no explicit road safety targets in Tajikistan. Other policy documents, such as the Order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of April 1, 2011 No. 165 About approval of the State target development program of the transport complex of the Republic of Tajikistan till 2025, Medium terms development program of the Republic of Tajikistan, National Transport Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2025, Updated Nationally Determined Contribution, and National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan up to 2030, may have indirect benefits for road safety, a dedicated and comprehensive road safety policy is essential. This policy should include clear targets, specific measures, and allocated resources to effectively address the multifaceted challenges of road safety.

ATO. National Database (2024). https://asiantransportoutlook.com/snd/

IMF. (2024). Climate Data. https://climatedata.imf.org/pages/access-data

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. (2021). GBD Results. GBD Results. https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. (2024). Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) Cause-Specific Mortality 1990-2021. https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2021-cause-specific-mortality-1990-2021

iRAP. (2024). Safety Insights Explorer. iRAP. https://irap.org/safety-insights-explorer/

Nirandjan, S., Koks, E. E., Ward, P. J., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2022). A spatially-explicit harmonized global dataset of critical infrastructure. Scientific Data, 9(1), 150. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01218-4

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022. https://population.un.org/wpp/

WHO. (2023). Global Status Report on Road Safety 2023. https://www.who.int/teams/social-determinants-of-health/safety-and-mobility/global-status-report-on-road-safety-2023

World Bank. (2023). GDP, PPP (current international $). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD

World Bank. (2024). Current health expenditure (% of GDP). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS