This overview of transport and climate change in Asia and the Pacific was developed by the Asian Transport Outlook team as an input into the 28th Conference of Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The overview is set up as a tracker which compares recent years, generally 2015-2021/2 and earlier periods, either 2000-2015 or 2010-2015. The overview tracks the status of: (a) transport-related CO2 emissions, (b) transport demand, (c) transport and climate change related policies and (d) outlook for transport related CO2 emissions.
Considering the overall scale of contributions and growth rates, the transport sector in Asia remains to be a key sector when it comes to addressing climate change. Recent evidence, however, shows signs of the slowing of the growth of emissions in the transport sector in Asia. Moreover, BAU emissions scenarios for the transport sector in Asia, are also being revised downward by multiple expert organisations.
Asian economies have started to exhibit varying degrees of decoupling of the growth of transport emissions against the growth in the economy. In High-income economies in the region transport emissions have stabilized since the turn of the century. On average, GDP has been growing faster than transport CO2 emissions in the region. The transport sector -which was the fastest growing sector in 2011-2015, has also been shown slower growth rates in terms of emissions as compared to other sectors in the region from 2015 onwards.
Road transport sector remains to be the most significant mode in terms of CO2 contribution in the region. Between 2000 to 2020, 1 billion road vehicles had been added in Asia. Heavy duty trucks are estimated to contribute at least a third of transport CO2 emissions in the region. Heavy duty trucks, light duty vehicles, and light commercial trucks contribute 75% of transport CO2 emissions in Asia.
Shipping and inland waterways have also shown increasing growth rates in terms of CO2 emissions. COVID-19 has had disruptive impacts in terms of transport demand in the region, as evidenced by the decreased bus imports, and increased two-wheeler and bike imports.
Asia has seen exponential growth in transport-related policy recommendations and targets, although policy implementation remains challenging. We demonstrate that NDCs and LTS are poor indicators for measuring the transport sector's climate ambition. We find evidence to conclude that transport policies emphasize sustainability and link low-carbon measures with broader goals such as improved access, connectivity, and employment.
The region faces infrastructure and climate resilience challenges, with a significant share of potential multi-hazard damages. In recent years, Climate resilience in the transport sector is slowly gaining importance, and investment in sustainable infrastructure is increasing.
Despite progress, Asia's transport emissions projections still fall short of the Paris Agreement's ambitious climate goals. The average 2050 Asia transport CO2 emissions are projected to be just below 4 Gt, indicating a positive shift but falling short of Paris Agreement targets. Achieving the Paris Agreement's goals will require further efforts to reduce transport CO2 emissions in Asia.
This second tracker of the climate change dimension of the transport sector in Asia makes active use of the information contained in the Asian Transport Outlook, an initiative by the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank to build the knowledge base on transport in Asia and the Pacific.