Recent fuel price movements are unfolding against the backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions that have tightened global oil markets and heightened supply uncertainty. For Asia—where many economies remain heavily reliant on imported fuels—these disruptions are quickly transmitted into domestic transport costs. The escalation of conflict in key energy-producing and transit regions has raised import costs, increased price volatility, and amplified exposure to external shocks. As a result, international oil price increases have fed directly into higher retail diesel and gasoline prices across the region, with immediate implications for transport affordability, logistics costs, and overall mobility.

Fuel price shifts: broad increases, uneven impacts

Between mid-February and early April 2026, global fuel prices moved sharply upward, with both diesel and gasoline showing widespread increases across most economies. The slope patterns in the figure below point to a consistent upward shift—countries are not only moving to the right (higher diesel prices), but also upward (higher gasoline prices), indicating a synchronized price increase across fuels.

Note: The thinner portion of each line are for values for Feb 16, 2026, while the thicker portion are for April 6, 2026 ; based on data from globalpetrolprices.com

In high-income economies, price increases are pronounced and absolute levels remain the highest. High-income economies are clustered at the upper end of the distribution, with both diesel and gasoline prices rising significantly over the period.

In contrast, many low- and lower-middle-income economies—particularly in Asia-Pacific—start from lower price levels but show substantial relative increases. Countries like Pakistan, Viet Nam, and the Philippines exhibit steep upward movements, suggesting stronger exposure to international price shocks and currency pressures. These shifts are more modest in absolute terms but more significant relative to household income and transport costs. The Southeast Asian sub-region (Myanmar, the Philippines, Cambodia, Lao PDR,  Viet Nam) has severely been impacted.

For Asia and the Pacific, the price change in lower middle-income economies stand out. Diesel prices increased by an average of 66%, while gasoline rose by 32%—the largest increases among all groups.

What makes this pattern more concerning is how it intersects with household expenditure.

Zooming in: Pacific Island Countries

Fuel prices increased across all selected Pacific economies between pre-March and April 2026, with variation across fuels and locations.

In the Cook Islands, prices rose across all fuels. Diesel increased from around 13.81 to 16.91 NZD per liter, gasoline from 13.94 to 15.59, and LPG from 15.88 to 25.29, with LPG showing the largest absolute increase.

In Samoa, diesel prices remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 3.00 to 3.09 WST per liter. Gasoline prices declined marginally from 2.91 to 2.85.

Papua New Guinea shows larger changes. Diesel increased from 423 to 769 Toea per liter, gasoline from 426.7 to 610, and kerosene from 390 to 744, indicating substantial increases across all fuel types.

In Fiji, price changes are shown across fuel types and locations.

• Diesel prices increased from an average of 2.18 to 3.24 FJD per liter, with higher current prices observed in areas such as Vanu Levu and Ovalau (around 5.87–5.82).
• Kerosene increased from an average of 1.74 to 2.96, with higher values in Rotuma and Vanu Levu and Ovalau (around 4.87–4.97).
• Motor spirit increased from 2.55 to 3.29 on average, reaching around 5.91–5.96 in Vanu Levu and Ovalau.
• Premix increased from 2.39 to 3.18 on average, with higher values again observed in Vanu Levu and Ovalau (around 5.62–5.83).

Across all four economies, prices are higher in April compared to pre-March levels for most fuels, with the largest increases observed in Papua New Guinea and in specific subnational locations in Fiji.

Transport already accounts for a larger share of household spending in lower and upper middle-income economies (around 1.2–1.3%) compared to high-income economies (0.77%). When combined with significantly higher fuel price increases, this suggests a disproportionate burden on households in these economies.

Looking at country-level patterns, the relationship becomes more uneven. Several lower and lower-middle income economies cluster in the upper-left portion of the chart. Countries such as Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Viet Nam, and Cambodia show very high fuel price increases (often above 80–100%).

At the same time, a different group of economies sits further to the right—where transport already takes up a large share of household budgets (15–25%), but price increases are more moderate. Countries such as India and Türkiye, fall into this category. 

Fuel price changes and imports

Fuel import dependence adds another layer to the story. Across Asia and the Pacific, fuel price changes and fuel import shares vary widely across economies. The chart shows no clear clustering along a single trend line, with countries distributed across the full range of both axes.

Several economies combine relatively high fuel import shares with large increases in fuel prices. Myanmar records the highest average price increase (above 100%) alongside a fuel import share of around 30% of merchandise imports. The Philippines, Viet Nam, and Cambodia also show high price increases (around 80–90%) with import shares generally between 10% and 20%.

A second group of economies shows moderate price increases with similar or higher levels of import dependence. For example, Thailand and Singapore record price increases in the range of 30–40%, with fuel import shares around 20–25%.

There are also economies with high import shares but relatively low or limited price changes. Japan and Korea, with import shares close to 30%, show price increases below 15%. India, with one of the highest import shares (close to 40%), records a near-zero or slightly negative average price change.

At the lower end of the spectrum, several economies with low fuel import shares (below 10%) show a wide range of price outcomes. Hong Kong and Kazakhstan record low price changes, while others such as Nepal and Fiji show moderate increases despite relatively limited import dependence.

Fuel price changes and implicit fossil fuel subsidies

Implicit fossil fuel subsidies refer to the gap between the full social cost of fuel use and the price paid by users. While explicit subsidies capture direct financial support (when prices are set below supply cost), implicit subsidies reflect the broader costs not priced into fuels—particularly local air pollution, climate impacts, and other societal costs associated with fuel use.

Several economies combine high increases in both diesel and gasoline prices with relatively large implicit subsidy values. Myanmar records the highest gasoline price increase (close to 100%) and diesel price change above 1.2, alongside one of the largest subsidy levels. The Philippines, Cambodia, and Malaysia also show relatively high price increases, with subsidy values in the mid-to-upper range.

At the lower end of the spectrum, several economies show limited or modest price increases and lower implicit subsidy values. These include countries such as Türkiye, where gasoline price changes remain below 15% and diesel price changes are also relatively contained.

References

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Cook Islands Price Tribunal. (2026). Price Order 02/2026. https://3dcc455a-1364-4a93-b59c-0f1dc36a87b0.filesusr.com/ugd/110dc2_1875ac2f550640c9b3d7c943b2c30d46.pdf

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